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Fan Chen

Alyssa Chen

Iran’s reclosure of the Strait of Hormuz has strained its tenuous ceasefire with the United States but will not necessarily send the two countries sliding back into war, according to analysts.
However, Israel was a wild card, they said, following renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon.
The US and Iran agreed to the ceasefire on Tuesday, just before US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the strait or risk being sent back to the “Stone Ages”.
Trump said he agreed to “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” in return for the reopening of the strategically important waterway.
He then said on social media that all US military personnel and weapons would stay near Iran until a “real agreement” was reached between the two countries.
“If for any reason it is not [reached], which is highly unlikely, then the ‘Shootin’ Starts’, bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before,” he wrote.




Shipping resumed briefly through the strait but Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that maritime traffic had been halted again following what Tehran claimed was an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon.
Nournews, a news outlet close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, reported on Thursday that the Revolutionary Guard’s navy had announced alternative transit routes through the strait.
Vessels inbound from the Gulf of Oman should transit north of Larak Island, outbound vessels should transit south of the island. Mariners must adhere to charted coordinates and coordinate with naval authorities, it said.
Earlier, The Financial Times reported that Iran would require ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to pay the cryptocurrency equivalent of US$1 per barrel of oil on board during the two-week ceasefire
On Wednesday, Israel launched its heaviest strike on Lebanon since the war began, killing at least 182, according to Lebanese authorities. Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy militia in Lebanon, retaliated, saying it fired rockets at northern Israel, Reuters reported.
Tehran sees the ceasefire deal as a “regional de-escalation” package, but both Washington and Jerusalem say it is only bilateral – meaning only applying to Tehran and not the Middle East as a whole.
When he announced the agreement, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who helped to mediate the deal, said it was effective immediately and applied “everywhere, including Lebanon and elsewhere” – a claim later disputed by the White House.
Iran, meanwhile, has given its own ultimatum. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a social media post that Washington must choose between a ceasefire or continued war via Israel, and “cannot have both”.
The White House said on Wednesday that the US would hold direct talks with Iran in the Pakistani capital Islamabad on Saturday.
US Vice-President J.D. Vance will lead the delegation, which will include special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law.


Jodie Wen, a scholar from the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, said while the negotiation process between Washington and Tehran would be “full of twists and turns”, the hostilities were not very likely to drag on or deteriorate into a much worse scenario.
“Both the US and Iran appear to have a shared interest in negotiations,” Wen said.
“Particularly for Iran, whose current willingness to accept the US framework is a strategic move to occupy the moral high ground … and allows them to be seen as a rational actor. Tehran is effectively signalling that they are not an obstinate party intent on pursuing a path towards conflict.”
However, Chinese military commentator Zhang Xuefeng told state broadcaster CCTV that Israel was the “primary external variable” in the US-Iran truce.
“It has become increasingly clear that Israel is reluctant to halt hostilities. Instead, it seeks to draw the US further into a campaign to weaken Iran,” Zhang said.
“Moving forward, while sporadic strikes against Iran are possible, Israel’s more realistic target is Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“This will inevitably trigger a chain reaction … [and] could force Iran to strike Israel directly, setting off a new cycle of escalation.”


Wen of Tsinghua University said it was difficult to identify a truly effective path to restrain Israel but Vance might be able to influence Trump’s decision-making process in relation to Israel.
“As the sole ‘anti-war’ voice within Trump’s inner circle, the outcome [of the negotiation] depends on whether Vance can successfully shift the president’s strategic direction,” she said.
China is also part of the picture.
In an interview with Agence France-Presse, Trump said he believed China had played a key role in bringing Iran to the negotiating table.
Iran has also expressed hope that China can work with other countries such as Russia, Pakistan and Turkey to guarantee peace in the region.
On Thursday, Beijing vowed to help de-escalate tensions and voiced support for an immediate ceasefire and for the dispute to be resolved through political and diplomatic channels.
In the meantime, Iran had the upper hand, supported by its asymmetric strategy and an arsenal that remained formidable despite weeks of intensive strikes, observers said.
Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Washington-based think tank Defence Priorities, said Tehran’s cost-effective asymmetric strategy of taking out sensors and early warning radars across the region was “difficult and expensive for the US to defend against”.
“Iran’s reliance on cheap drones and missiles has been quite effective at striking US forces where they are weak, as the Pentagon has underinvested in counter-drone technologies and relies on expensive air defence,” she said.
“Iran is still producing drones, and has maintained a constant rate of fire for drones and missiles over the past two weeks, a clear sign of its resilience.”
Geoffrey Miller, a Middle East strategic analyst based in New Zealand, said the US miscalculated the breadth and depth of Iranian resistance, including the sheer amount of weaponry Iran had stockpiled over decades and replenished since last year’s 12-day war.
“To match the decentralised power structure, Iran has also stockpiled its ballistic missiles and drone weaponry in underground storage facilities across the country … The sheer number and nature of these underground facilities has made complete destruction from the air almost impossible.”


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US-Israel war on Iran

The Strait of Hormuz is closed again. Could the Iran-US truce fail at any moment?

Smoke rises over Beirut, Lebanon, on Wednesday  after several Israeli air strikes. Photo: AP

Strait of Hormuz: is a Trump‑Iran joint venture really possible?

Oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates last month. Photo: AP

A satellite image of the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: Nasa via dpa

Cargo ships near the Strait of Hormuz last month. Photo: Reuters

Iran war: Russia and China veto UN resolution aimed at reopening Strait of Hormuz

The 15-member Security Council voted 11 in favour of the resolution presented by Bahrain, with two against - China and Russia - and two abstentions. Photo: Lev Radin/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa

China’s UN ambassador, Fu Cong, vetoes a UN Security Council draft resolution on the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: Xinhua

A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, in March. Photo: Reuters

Strait of Hormuz: are France and Germany just out to ‘manage their irrelevance’?

Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, last month. Iran has effectively closed the waterway through which about 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply is transported. Photo: Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron has dismissed a military reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as “unrealistic”. Photo: Reuters

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has taken a pragmatic approach to the crisis. Photo: EPA

Pakistan’s peace plan a ‘critical opportunity’ for US-Iran talks ahead of Trump deadline

Air strikes on Iran continue on Monday ahead of US President Donald Trump’s deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: Reuters

The Strait of Hormuz is closed again. Could the Iran-US truce fail at any moment?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Much of what happens next may depend on ‘wild card’ Israel, observers say

Much of what happens next may depend on ‘wild card’ Israel, observers say