Will Trump’s Iran war ‘loyalty test’ spell the end of Nato?

The US-Israel war on Iran could push Nato closer to becoming a “nominal” alliance, although it was unlikely to disband any time soon, a Chinese observer said. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticised the transatlantic defence alliance since returning to the White House last year, accusing allies of “free‑riding” on US security and demanding greater military and financial contributions. That rhetoric has only intensified in recent weeks, with accusations that Nato was failing to support the US military campaign against Iran. On Thursday morning, Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasised in a speech in Washington that “the Allies are doing everything the United States is asking.” But Rutte admitted that some allies were “a bit slow” on providing “the logistical and other support the United States needed in Iran”. “Europe is assuming a greater and fairer share of the task of providing for its conventional defence. And from that, there will be no going back, and nor should there be,” Rutte told the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute. However, the message Trump conveyed after his closed-door meeting with Rutte the previous day struck a different tone, as he reiterated his threat to annex the Danish territory of Greenland. “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!” Trump wrote on his social media platform. Hours earlier, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt delivered a message from the president. Nato “were tested and they failed” in the Iran war, she quoted Trump as saying. The same day, a Wall Street Journal report citing US government officials said that the Trump administration was considering punitive measures against certain Nato members, including the potential relocation of US troops from their territories. Trump has also repeatedly threatened to pull out of Nato, including in an interview with a British daily last week, when he again described the alliance as a “paper tiger” and said removing the US – a founder member – was “beyond reconsideration”. His criticism of the transatlantic body has been echoed by several cabinet members, including top US diplomat Marco Rubio and Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth. Sun Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy in Beijing, argued that the Middle East crisis would not dismantle Nato outright, but was likely to hasten its alliance’s shift from a “functional” security pact to a merely nominal one. According to Nato spokeswoman Allison Hart, Rutte and Trump had a “frank” discussion on various issues related to the bloc’s shared security, including in the Iran context. “The Secretary General underscored the importance of Allies continuing to step up to deliver a stronger, fairer Alliance,” she wrote on social media on Thursday. Sun said the war had exposed long-standing transatlantic divisions – over strategic priorities, burden-sharing, and Europe’s growing fatigue with a model where “the US protects and Europe follows”. Trump had turned the conflict into a “loyalty test” for allies, while many European countries were more concerned about spillover effects, energy security and the legal repercussions, and thus reluctant to be drawn into the US-led military operation, Sun said. Still, he noted that Europe was unlikely to detach itself from the US nuclear umbrella, intelligence support, long-range power projection and command structures any time soon. “Nato’s institutional arrangements still have a strong inertia,” he said. Sun said a formal withdrawal from Nato would also prove legally challenging for Trump but he could still effectively hollow it out – by cutting troop deployments, blurring security guarantees and cutting political engagement. Meanwhile, the two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreed to on Tuesday is being severely tested by continued Israeli attacks on alleged Iran-backed Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, with more than 250 people killed on Wednesday in one of its deadliest attacks in years. Iran accused Israel of breaching the ceasefire and said that the Strait of Hormuz was closed again, casting a shadow over talks with the US expected to take place in Pakistan on Saturday. Sun warned that a prolonged crisis in the critical crude chokepoint could visibly heighten Europe’s anxiety over energy prices, industrial costs, inflation, shipping insurance, and aviation fuel and winter reserves. When war erupted in Ukraine, Europe slashed import of piped Russian gas and shifted to imports of liquefied natural gas, a move that heightened its vulnerability to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz disruptions, Sun said. But that did not mean European countries would automatically back a US military escalation against Iran, Sun added, arguing that an approach of “limited alignment and selective cooperation” was more likely. “Europe may not fully align with the US on war aims, but when it comes to … keeping the strait open and stabilising markets, the likelihood of Europe being forced to draw closer to Washington again is not small.” He said that could signal a new phase in transatlantic relations – one marked by diverging strategic identities but persistent interdependence in crisis management.

Will Trump’s Iran war ‘loyalty test’ spell the end of Nato?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Transatlantic allies’ refusal to back the Iran war fuels latest Trump outburst after meeting with Nato chief Mark Rutte

Transatlantic allies’ refusal to back the Iran war fuels latest Trump outburst after meeting with Nato chief Mark Rutte