Why a Trump call to Taiwan’s Lai could trigger ‘turbulence’ between Washington and Beijing

Beijing has reiterated its firm opposition to any official interactions between Washington and Taiwan, following US President Donald Trump’s remarks that he would be open to speaking with the person “running” the island, William Lai Ching-te. Such a move would cross Beijing’s red line and undo the progress made during Trump’s recent summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, analysts warn, though they note China should remain confident and that such a call would be highly unlikely. “China’s opposition to official US exchanges with China’s Taiwan region and US arms to Taiwan remains consistent, clear and firm,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Thursday. The ministry urged the United States to “earnestly implement the important consensus reached by the heads of state”, referring to Trump’s trip to Beijing last week for a summit with Xi. It also called on Washington to “handle the Taiwan question with actual prudence” and take concrete actions to uphold the steady development of Sino-US relations. Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons. When asked on Wednesday if he planned to contact Lai before making a decision on arms sales to the island, Trump told reporters he was preparing to talk to him. “I’ll speak to him,” he said of Taiwan’s leader. “I speak to everybody. We have that situation very well in hand.” Trump’s remarks came just days after his highly anticipated state visit to China, which some hailed as a historic recalibration of ties amid the fierce competition between the two powers. On his way back home from Beijing, Trump said he and Xi had discussed Taiwan “a lot” and that he did not support an armed conflict over the island. “The last thing we need right now is a war that’s 9,500 miles (15,300km) away,” the US leader said aboard Air Force One. “I think that’s the last thing we need.” Trump added that he would speak to the person “that is running Taiwan” before making a determination on a US$14 billion arms sale package to the island. Late last year, the Trump administration authorised a US$11 billion weapons package for Taiwan. In January, American lawmakers approved the US$14 billion arms sale. Trump put both deals on hold pending the summit with Xi. Beijing has stalled a planned visit by Elbridge Colby, the US undersecretary of defence for policy, over the arms package, according to the Financial Times on Thursday. Xin Qiang, a professor and deputy director of the Centre for American Studies at Fudan University, said Sino-US relations would without question experience another period of turbulence or even a sharp escalation in tensions if a call to Lai were to take place. “This is likely to undermine the positive effects of Trump’s recent visit to China and could even overshadow future bilateral interactions, including Xi’s planned visit to the US in September,” Xin added. Trump’s 2016 phone call with Taiwan’s then-leader Tsai Ing-wen, made while he was still president-elect, sparked friction with Beijing, which lodged serious representations. Since Washington changed its diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, there has been almost no direct leader-to-leader communication between the US and Taiwan. Xin said that while a Trump-Lai phone call could not be entirely ruled out owing to the US president’s unpredictability, it remained highly unlikely. Given all of Washington’s interactions with Beijing, it was also highly unlikely that Trump and his administration would not grasp the sensitivity of the issue after the call with Tsai, Xin said. Instead, striking a balance might be Trump’s primary goal this time, the scholar added. “[His comment on a possible call] might aim to appease pro-Taiwan factions within the US, serving as a calculated counterbalance to his previous rhetoric on the Taiwan issue … [which is] viewed domestically as overly favourable to Beijing,” Xin explained. During last week’s talks with Trump, Xi reiterated that Taiwan remained the “most critical matter” in Sino-US ties. “If handled well, bilateral relations can maintain overall stability,” Xi said. “If handled poorly, the two countries will clash, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a very dangerous situation.” “The US side must handle the Taiwan issue with utmost caution.” Notably, Washington’s read-out of the summit did not mention Taiwan. Meanwhile, Taipei has received no information regarding a phone call between Trump and Lai, according to Pan Meng-an, the island’s presidential office secretary general, on Thursday. Pan said communication between the two sides remained “smooth and unimpeded”. On Wednesday, Lai told media he would be willing to speak to Trump if the US leader were to call, saying he would state that Taiwan hoped to continue the arms purchases. According to Zhu Feng, dean of Nanjing University’s School of International Studies, it still might be too early to conclude what could ensue from Trump’s remarks on a possible phone call with Lai. “The critical issue is what the conversation would entail,” Zhu said. “That is the crux of the matter.” He argued that Beijing remained confident in the consensus on Taiwan reached during the leaders’ summit, with Trump’s subsequent remarks underscoring that a conflict with Beijing over the island’s independence ran counter to US interests. “There is no need for us to rush to judgment,” Zhu added. “It is still too early to conclude whether Trump’s openness to talking with Lai violates his commitments or deals a subversive blow to the outcomes of the recently concluded China-US summit.”

Why a Trump call to Taiwan’s Lai could trigger ‘turbulence’ between Washington and Beijing

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Such a move would cross Beijing’s red line and undo progress from recent summit with Xi, analysts warn

Such a move would cross Beijing’s red line and undo progress from recent summit with Xi, analysts warn