US-China policy under Donald Trump is heading for ‘unpredictable drift’: expert

Soon after Donald Trump concluded a visit to China that he hailed as a great success, America’s top diplomat joined his Indian, Japanese and Australian counterparts in New Delhi for a meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. At the meeting on May 26, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the foreign ministers launched the Quad Critical Minerals Initiative Framework, a strategic push to curb global reliance on Beijing for rare earth elements. Member states are pooling up to US$20 billion for the mechanism. On the security front, the bloc, which was formed nearly two decades ago to counter China’s rising prominence in the Indo-Pacific, unveiled a maritime surveillance collaboration initiative to integrate the member states’ regional information sharing. In addition, an energy security initiative was introduced to bolster regional fuel networks, alongside a pilot port infrastructure project in Fiji. The developments came after Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping reached an agreement during the US president’s state visit in mid-May to pursue a constructive relationship of “strategic stability”. At the same time, the Washington establishment comprising American national security officials and foreign policy specialists has focused on longer-term strategic competition through technology controls, supply-chain security and minilateral partnership. The Quad’s push to curb China’s tech and maritime dominance reveals a deep divide in US foreign policy: as Trump prioritises short-term stability with Beijing, the establishment is locking in long-term containment, creating strategic uncertainty across Asia, according to observers. Some analysts see a blend of deterrence and engagement in the US-China rivalry, while others point to a gap between Trump’s transactional approach and the long-term strategic competition pursued by the working-level diplomatic establishment. One expert said this posed both opportunities and challenges for China. Zhu Feng, dean of Nanjing University’s school of international studies, said the contrast underscored a calibrated US strategy towards China. Washington sought to stabilise ties and prevent conflict through engagement with Beijing while reinforcing regional alliances, he said, adding that US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth’s speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue “projected this exact approach”. Speaking at Asia’s premier defence and security forum in Singapore last week, Hegseth struck a softer tone than last year, refraining from explicitly labelling Beijing a “threat” and avoiding any mention of Taiwan in his address. Other scholars viewed the differences between Trump’s dealings with China and those carried out by America’s foreign policy establishment as evidence of a deeper fracture within Washington. “There are inconsistencies and contradictions in US policy towards China,” said Zhu Zhiqun, a professor of political science and international relations at Bucknell University. “While the US foreign policy establishment still prefers to contain China, Trump is more interested in maintaining a productive relationship to manage the rivalry pragmatically and better serve US interests.” Sun Chenghao, a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy, said the divide lay in conflicting priorities. Sun contrasted Trump’s focus on “transaction results and short-term visible gains” with the establishment’s emphasis on “long-term structural competition” in technology, supply chains and alliance systems. “This does not amount to a simple difference in tactics but rather a deeper tension inside US-China policy,” he said. Instead of an outright rupture, Sun said he expected a “new dynamic balance” to emerge in which high-level deal-making coexisted with lower-level containment through security cooperation. Analysts said a disconnect between Trump and the establishment was triggering uncertainty for America’s partners. Daniel Markey, a senior fellow with the South Asia and China programmes at the Washington-based Stimson Centre, called the disconnect “more than stylistic”. “It creates conditions in which allies and adversaries struggle to understand Washington’s strategic intentions and priorities,” he said. The disconnect was likely to endure throughout Trump’s term, Markey added. If Trump continued to favour transactional, bilateral deals, he said, it could reinforce Washington’s traditional “hub-and-spokes” model of regional alliances rather than institutionalising minilateral groups like the Quad. Markey noted that the ultimate risk was not the dissolution of such partnerships, but that Washington would drift without a clear strategy. “Unpredictable drift, not calculated direction, seems to be the most likely outcome.” For China, policy drift from America presents a complex double-edged calculus. Sun said it gave Beijing an opportunity to argue against “bloc politics” and appeal to neighbours who preferred flexibility over confrontation. “But it also means US competition is likely to continue in a more fragmented and functional manner,” he added. “That could be low profile but persistent.”

US-China policy under Donald Trump is heading for ‘unpredictable drift’: expert

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Beijing is said to face complex double-edged calculus amid contrasting approaches of American president and Washington establishment

Beijing is said to face complex double-edged calculus amid contrasting approaches of American president and Washington establishment