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Trump may get birthday gift of an Iran deal, but the party may be messy and short-lived
As the US, Iran and Pakistan announce they have reached an agreement on the conflict, Chinese analysts flag Israel as unpredictable factor
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The announcement of an impending Iran deal could not have been a better birthday gift for President Donald Trump – but celebrations could be short-lived if fragile details of the agreement fail to hold.
Obstacles will not be easy to overcome, Chinese observers say. Any lasting framework must navigate uncertainties around the fate of Iran’s nuclear programme under its new regime, the mechanisms of sanction relief for Tehran and a rattled Israel, which has vowed to remove what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as “existential threats”.
Still, Trump, who celebrated his 80th birthday on Sunday, can be considered a winner, according to Pan Guang, a senior researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences and a prominent expert on Middle Eastern affairs in China.
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“Trump’s current priorities are stabilising the economy and preparing for the midterm elections, so this is advantageous for him on both counts, at the very least.”
The deal, which was first revealed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan, a key mediator, came after months of on-and-off negotiations that also involved Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey.
It is not clear what they agreed on exactly, but shortly after Sharif’s announcement, Trump wrote on social media that the deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway that is vital for global oil and LNG trade.
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