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Weather weapons: why the atmosphere could become the next geopolitical battleground

There is growing disquiet in several nations about how weather-manipulation tools are used in cross-border rivalries

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The sky is emerging as a new arena of strategic competition as nations move beyond simply forecasting the weather towards actively shaping it. Photo: VCG via Getty Images
Khushboo Razdan

When devastating floods swept through Assam in northeastern India in 2018, the disaster quickly triggered a troubling question within New Delhi’s security corridors. As technology advances, could control over the weather become a tool of geopolitical pressure, or even a weapon?

Much of the concern centred on neighbouring China. Assam’s then finance minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma, publicly warned about Beijing’s Tianhe, or Sky River, initiative, one of the world’s largest weather-modification programmes.
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The project, which was first raised in 2016, aims to intercept and redirect atmospheric moisture across the Tibetan Plateau, but has triggered criticism both within China and abroad.

“If this new system is introduced, there will surely be huge ramifications,” Sarma said, arguing that India could not afford to ignore the downstream effects of large-scale atmospheric manipulation.

With China planning to expand its artificial rainfall capabilities across 5.5 million sq km (2.1 million square miles) – an area about 1.7 times the size of India – apparent regional speculation has evolved into a national security concern.

With climate disasters becoming more frequent and destructive, from devastating typhoons in China to unprecedented floods that brought Dubai to a standstill, the sky is no longer just a symbol of climate change.

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