Growing slower: China growth between 6.6 and 6.8pc next year, top academy predicts
Nation will avoid hard landing as central government expected to loosen fiscal spending to aid growth, Academy of Social Sciences says
China’s economy is likely to grow between 6.6 and 6.8 per cent next year, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said on Wednesday.
The government think tank has in the past overestimated the mainland’s gross domestic product growth in its annual Bluebook. But it has been far more accurate in foreseeing the big picture of China’s GDP trend over the past five years – lower, lower and lower.
For 2016, the government think-tank is predicting a headline GDP growth rate of between 6.6 and 6.8 per cent, down from an estimated 7 per cent in 2015.
A research team at the People’s Bank of China forecast 6.8 per cent growth for 2016, a modest slowdown from an estimated 6.9 per cent growth in 2015, according to a working paper published on its website, also on Wednesday.
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The team headed by Ma Jun, the bank’s chief research economist, wrote that performance next year would be helped by rising exports and a more stable environment for property investment.