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Wang Baoan, director of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, speaks to reporters at the press conference announcing China's GDP and economic data in Beijing on Tuesday. Photo: EPA

Update | China turns in lowest growth rate in 25 years at 6.9pc as Hong Kong, Shanghai markets rally amid hope of policies to stem slowdown

Economists raise doubts about reliability of China’s growth data but statistics chief stands by the accuracy of the figures

China’s GDP growth for 2015 came in at a 25-year low of 6.9 per cent on Tuesday amid a gloomy outlook even as Beijing pushes to fix structural problems that have hindered its economy.

Last year’s growth in gross domestic product was the lowest in a quarter of a century, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was 6.8 per cent.

The release of the figures pushed stocks into a rally yesterday afternoon, amid growing speculation of supportive policies to help stem the risks of further and faster economic slowdown.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed up 2.07 per cent at 19,635.81. The Shanghai Composite Index ended up 3.22 per cent at 3,007.74, the biggest single-day rise in over two months.

READ MORE: For China’s struggling economy, 2016 may be worse than 2015

Economists raised doubts about the reliability of China’s data, with some suggesting that actual full-year growth could have been as low as 5 per cent.

But Wang Baoan, chief of the statistics bureau, stood by the accuracy of the data, denying that it could have been adjusted to reflect a rosier economic outlook.

Analysts say the country will continue to face strong economic headwinds this year as Beijing tries to tackle problems of excessive stock and manufacturing overcapacity as one of the major tasks of its supply-side structural reform plan.

Watch: China’s economic growth slowest in 25 years

Nomura economist Zhao Yang said the government faced the challenge of balancing the need to prevent the economy from further decline and the necessity of pushing through its structural reforms.

“The central government will tolerate further slowdown in the economy if it focuses on structural reforms, but it will step up stimulus efforts if downward momentum goes out of control,” he said.

Analysts agree that strong stimulus measures that worked years ago are no longer the solution to the Chinese economy’s structural problems. The country’s rate of growth also no longer matters as much as it did before.

Bank of Dongguan economist Chen Long said lower growth in 2016 would be within expectations. He believed Beijing would set its target growth rate for the year below 6.5 per cent.

Niu Li, a senior researcher with the State Information Centre, a think tank affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission, said growth should not be allowed to fall too sharply in order to safeguard the economy amid implementation of the structural reforms.

“A stable economy will give space and time for the much-needed reforms as structural problems – such as industrial overcapacity and big unsold apartments in third- and lower-tier cities – haven’t been fundamentally addressed,” Niu said.

“Without improvements in job creation, income and environment, focusing on growth figures alone simply isn’t meaningful.”

READ MORE: China’s export figures stronger than expected in December amid fears over nation’s slowing economy

Han Jun, deputy chief of the General Office of the Leading Group for Financial and Economic Affairs, said in New York last week that China could see L-shaped growth over the long run, state media reported. He ruled out the possibility of a V- or U-shaped growth pattern during the readjustment period.

Chen said the impending bankruptcy and restructuring of one or two big state-owned enterprises in the steel and coal sectors this year would give bigger impetus for the sectors to achieve substantial progress in structural reform over the next few years.

Meanwhile, Beijing was expected to roll out bankruptcy and liquidity arrangements for banks this year, he said. The move was further liberalise interest rates and facilitate the disposal of corporate bad loans, he said.

“The coming years won’t be easy for the government,” Chen said. “Short-term measures can only safeguard against a ­massive crisis, while structural ­adjustments will continue over the long run.

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