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Frank Tang

China’s exports, particularly to the US, rallied in November as the nation’s weakening currency made Chinese goods less expensive for overseas buyers.
Threats of a trade war and pledges of infrastructure spending from US president-elect Donald Trump also boosted exports as buyers positive about growth in the US economy snapped up Chinese goods ahead of possible tariffs on mainland products, analysts said.
Overseas shipments of Chinese goods increased 0.1 per cent year-on-year in US dollar terms last month, compared to a fall of 7.3 per cent in October, China’s customs administration said on Thursday.
The figures were much better than estimates of a five per cent fall in economist surveys carried out by Bloomberg and Reuters.
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Trump’s plans to boost infrastructure spending in the US to boost its economy is generating more orders for Chinese products from overseas, according to analysts.
“The stronger than expected growth of the US economy in the third quarter and the expectation of further economic recovery on Trump’s US$500 billion infrastructure spending plan are lifting demand for Chinese products,” said Liu Xuezhi, an analyst at the Bank of Communications in Shanghai.
Liu said Trump’s earlier threat to impose a punitive tariff on Chinese products may have persuaded US buyers to “front load” their purchasing orders in China.
“His protectionist stance ... led to a hurry of early delivery ahead of his swearing into office in January,” he said.
China’s exports to the US rose 8.1 per cent in November from a year earlier to US$36.8 billion.
Compared to October’s figures, the value of shipments heading for US ports rose 5.4 per cent, according to calculations made by the South China Morning Post based on China customs data.
China’s trade data may be giving a more accurate picture than normal as Beijing’s strict control of capital outflows to shore up the value of the yuan has squeezed out money transfers disguised as trade payments, according to Deng Haiqing, the chief economist at JZ Securities, a mainland brokerage house.
China’s imports from Hong Kong fell 60 per cent from a year earlier in November, Deng wrote in a research note.
China’s foreign reserves fall again in November even as Beijing tightens screws on capital outflows
Louis Kuijs, an analyst at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note that the recovery in Chinese exports “provides some relief on global demand momentum” and was helped by “a trade-weighted depreciation of nearly 8 per cent” in the Chinese currency in the previous 12 months.
The Chinese currency depreciated 1.7 per cent against the greenback in November after a fall of 1.3 per cent a month earlier.
China’s imports increased 6.7 per cent in November in dollar terms, largely driven by the rebound in commodity prices and increased demand for raw materials and energy supplies.
The return of “Old China” drivers, including infrastructure and manufacturing, has driven up the demand for raw materials.
China should ‘stand back and let yuan fall against US dollar before Trump takes office’
Iron ore imports in the past 11 months increased 9.2 per cent year-on-year, while crude imports jumped 14 per cent in the same period, partly as commodity prices recovered.
China’s imports, however, may start to loose steam next year, according to Julian Evans-Pritchard, a China analyst at Capital Economics.
“With the headwinds from policy easing starting to fade and the risk of a property market correction rising, the support to imports from China’s domestic recovery will begin to fizzle out next year,” he wrote in a research note.


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China’s exports to the US rose 8.1 per cent in November. Photo: AFP

This picture taken on October 12, 2016 shows a Chinese worker making soft toys at a toy factory in Lianyungang, east China's Jiangsu province. China's exports plummeted last month, data showed on October 13, as anemic global demand dealt another blow to the world's second-largest economy, while weak imports fuelled worries about crucial domestic appetite. / AFP PHOTO / STR / China OUT

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Weaker currency making nation’s goods cheaper overseas, while US buyers snap up Chinese products ahead of possible higher tariffs under new president, say analysts


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China’s exports rally on weak yuan, ‘Trump tariff threats’

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Weaker currency making nation’s goods cheaper overseas, while US buyers snap up Chinese products ahead of possible higher tariffs under new president, say analysts

Weaker currency making nation’s goods cheaper overseas, while US buyers snap up Chinese products ahead of possible higher tariffs under new president, say analysts