US, China may ‘stumble’ into conflict in South China Sea, war game scenarios suggest
- The volatile waterway rather than Taiwan may be the spark to military action between the two powers
- Increasing number of encounters heighten risk Beijing and Washington could accidentally escalate into armed confrontation
This is the second in a series examining the growing tensions between China and the United States and how the situation could escalate into a full-blown military conflict. You can read part one, part three, and part four here.
As diplomatic relations between China and the US deteriorate to their lowest point since they were established in 1979, a military conflict between the two countries no longer seems a far-fetched possibility.
Their last direct engagement was during the Korean war, from 1950 to 1953, at a time of sparse trade and no diplomatic relations between Beijing and Washington. The spark which set off that confrontation was fear among China’s leadership of a unified Korean peninsula loyal to the US on the doorstep.
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Washington’s hardened position on Beijing’s claims in South China Sea heightens US-China tensions
China did not enter the conflict – which began with a Soviet-backed invasion of the south – until North Korean forces were pushed back to the Yalu River, which forms the border with China, by a UN-backed force dominated by US troops.
The surprise offensive by the People’s Liberation Army in October 1950 was the first of many attacks which eventually pushed the US-dominated forces back to the 38th parallel, where the border between North and South Korea has now stood for almost seven decades.
“You have all these contested islands, you’ve had collisions, you’ve had intimidation, you’ve had a worsening of relations,” said Michael Auslin, a fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution in California. “Neither Beijing nor Washington will choose war, but I am very worried they could stumble.”
The South China Sea is one of the most coveted bodies of water in the world. Every year, one-third of the world’s shipping passes through it, carrying more than US$3 trillion worth of trade. Abundant fisheries as well as potentially massive oil and gas reserves are some of the many other draws which also make it one of the world’s most heavily-disputed areas.