US Navy build-up plans ‘may cement China’s resolve to modernise’
- China will not react to the US secretary of defence’s ‘Future Forward’ announcement but will push forward with military overhaul: analyst
- Observers forecast friction between American and Chinese armed forces and potential close encounters but say neither nation wants war
In a speech to the Rand Corporation, a US think tank, Esper said a sweeping review of US naval power dubbed “Future Forward” had laid out a “game-changer” plan that would expand the US sea fleet to more than 355 ships from the current 293.
The plan, which requires adding tens of billions of dollars to the US Navy budget between now and 2045, is aimed at maintaining superiority over Chinese naval forces, seen as the main threat to the United States.
“The future fleet will be more balanced in its ability to deliver lethal effects from the air, from the sea, and from under the sea,” Esper said.
South China Sea: the dispute that could start a military conflict
Liu Weidong, a US affairs expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China was accustomed to remarks such as Esper’s and, regardless of his speech, the risks of confrontation between China and the US were indeed increasing, caused mainly by Washington’s strategic shift.
But he added that the friction could be managed because neither side wanted a real war.
Collin Koh, a research fellow from the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, said Esper’s remarks would only reinforce Beijing’s conviction to push forward with modernising its military.
“China won’t enact countermeasures to Esper’s remarks beyond what it’s already been doing, such as openly criticising such remarks as fraught with the cold war mentality and McCarthyism aimed at containing Beijing using the ‘China threat’ theory,” Koh said.
“Esper’s remarks won’t affect what Beijing has been doing with the PLA modernisation efforts. If anything, Esper’s remarks only serve to reinforce Beijing’s conviction to push on with such efforts.
“Beyond the rhetoric we see so far, while the risk of premeditated conflict is low, we can’t discount the potential of close naval and air encounters between the rival forces.”
US expected to step up surveillance as China continues naval drills
US President Donald Trump labelled China a strategic competitor in late 2017, at a time when the two countries were imposing tit-for-tat tariffs against each other. And after three years, relations between China and the US have plummeted to the lowest point in decades as the two powers clash on issues ranging from diplomacy to technology and military.
The US has increased its defence budget by 4 per cent to US$750 billion in the latest fiscal 2020 budget, and the US Navy was granted a US$795 million contract this year to buy the first ship of a new class of guided missile frigates.
Has the US already lost the battle for the South China Sea?
And on August 26, China launched two missiles, including an “aircraft-carrier killer”, into the South China Sea, sending a clear warning to the US.
Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping said the Chinese military would not respond to Esper’s speech with strong action but would continue its military modernisation process.
“But it’s true that the risks of naval confrontation between the two countries are increasing, because the ‘freedom of navigation’ appeal by the US is in essence to maintain its own hegemonic status and, in this sense, Washington is destined to clamp down on every Chinese move that will help the Chinese naval capability build up,” Song said.
