Beijing regards Taiwan as part of its territory and opposes the United States’ official ties with Taipei, saying it violates the one-China principle.

Chinese military beefs up coastal forces as it prepares for possible invasion of Taiwan

China’s escalating military activities are designed, in large part, to disorient Taiwanese leaders and complicate decision-making and reaction times, said Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at the US think tank Rand.

“From Beijing’s perspective, it is quite beneficial to create a new normal of intruding into Taiwan’s airspace – and as such this is very likely to ramp up – because it reduces Taiwan’s ability to determine whether specific actions represent the start of a real war,” he said.

“The ramp-up in Chinese military activity is also designed to frighten Taiwan into submission and to gather intelligence, such as on response times of Taiwanese jet fighters scrambled to intercept Chinese military aircraft,” he said, adding that China had to practise under “real combat conditions” if the next war was most likely over Taiwan.

Arms in US-Taiwan deal could slow mainland attack: analyst

Timothy Heath, a senior international defence research analyst at Rand, said the military drills might continue with more intimidation, bullying and efforts to sabotage and destabilise the island – all attempts to convince Taipei to accept unification in exchange for security and peace.

“This offers a lower risk of war than military attack, and it offers the benefit of allowing the Chinese Communist Party to appear to its people to be doing something about Taiwan,” he said.

The situation was one Beijing could tolerate while it focused on bigger issues like overhauling its economy and managing competition with the US, he said.

But Heath said Beijing did not have the incentive to provoke a war over Taiwan due to economic and political issues at home – partly because of its handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

“Although Beijing might be willing to have a military crisis, that is quite separate from a willingness to risk a major war,” he said.

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Military drills in Taiwan Strait are ‘necessary’ as US envoy Keith Krach visits island, China says

Military drills in Taiwan Strait are ‘necessary’ as US envoy Keith Krach visits island, China says

“Given China’s far more important economic and domestic political issues, there is still no incentive for Beijing to provoke a war over Taiwan, since war would only make all of China’s problems far worse.”

Mainland Chinese observers say stepping up military pressure could help Beijing gather intelligence, intimidate the island and respond to domestic nationalistic sentiment.

“Taiwan’s situation has fundamentally changed, and the possibility of a peaceful reunification is becoming smaller and smaller … But between peace and war, there is a third way – using force to coerce Taiwan into submission. This can reduce casualties to a large extent and minimise cost,” Wang Zaixi, a former major general who led a mainland body for managing ties with Taiwan, told the news portal Guancha.com last week.

Zhu Songling, a Taiwanese affairs expert from Beijing Union University, said the increasingly close ties between Washington and Taipei had misled pro-independence forces.

China mounts live-fire test of new anti-tank missile in ‘Taiwan drill

“So Beijing has to make its intentions clear,” he said. “These warm relations between the US and Taiwan have violated the political foundation between China and the US.”

Alexander Huang Chieh-cheng, a professor of strategic studies at Tamkang University in Taipei, said Beijing’s recent actions only intensified the Taiwanese dislike of Beijing.

“In the past, Beijing has increased both diplomatic and military pressure against Taiwan, he said.

“If China thinks they can get what they want as long as their economic strength grows bigger, but actually they employ wolf warrior style diplomacy and never listen to other people’s voices, then they will only fail.”