US-China tension: preventing war ‘relies on conversations between their militaries’
- Breakdown in military-level communication since Chinese side missed virtual meeting should be addressed to stabilise situation, observers say
- Crisis prevention remains important with US President Joe Biden set to continue the broad strategy of his predecessor
Confrontations between the world’s two giants on multiple fronts from trade to geopolitics will continue after the end of Donald Trump’s presidency this week, but that should push the countries to come up with a more effective communication mechanism, given that neither side wants a “hot war”, they argued.
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Shi, who is also an adviser to the State Council, China’s cabinet, said military-to-military communication had suffered during the Trump administration, which formally ended on Wednesday, but had still helped reduce the risk of nuclear war and other volatility.
“The two militaries’ confrontation and arms competition will basically remain unchanged as the US will deploy more strategic weapons to the Indo-Pacific,” Shi said.
“Even in Trump’s administration, no accidental military conflicts happened during escalating tensions in the East China Sea and South China Sea, and even in the western Pacific, indicating both China and US have been keen on crisis prevention.”
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Drew Thompson, a former US defence department official who was responsible for managing relations with China, said both the Central Military Commission (CMC) – which oversees the PLA – and the US defence department valued their stable relations, which had been cultivated for decades.
“US-China military-to-military relations were stable throughout the Trump administration, so I expect that trend to continue in the Biden administration because the structural foundations of military-to-military engagement are well developed and mutually beneficial,” Thompson, now a research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, said.
“Both sides value sustained and substantive channels at the highest levels of the military – between the secretary of defence and CMC counterparts, between senior leaders responsible for international cooperation and policy, and between air force and navy operators to reduce the risk of misperception and miscalculation at all levels.”
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In 2019, Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe and his then US counterpart Mark Esper pledged to maintain a stable military relationship and improve cooperation, almost 18 months after Trump launched a trade war to pressure Beijing to reform its economic system.
Last month, weeks after Esper was sacked by Trump, communication channels between the militaries were shut down when the Chinese military failed to show up to a scheduled virtual maritime security meeting with US Indo-Pacific Command officials. The Chinese side claimed the Americans had changed the agenda – itself indicating less than smooth communication preceding it.
“The PLA leadership had to deal with five US defence secretaries and acting chiefs in Trump’s four-year term, which is such a headache,” military observer Zhou Chenming said.
“The Chinese military is expecting [under Biden] a pragmatic counterpart similar to Esper, or even similar to a professional general like Jim Mattis [Esper’s predecessor].”
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Retired army general Lloyd Austin, who was confirmed as US defence secretary on Friday, said on Tuesday in a testimony to the Senate Armed Service Committee that he would recognise China as the principal threat to the US.
“Clearly the strategy will be arrayed against the threat and China presents the most significant threat going forward because China is ascending,” he said. “Russia is also a threat, but it’s in decline.”
Military commentator and former PLA instructor Song Zhongping said Austin’s remark indicated the Biden administration would continue Trump’s approach of using the US’ military superiority to contain a rising China.
“But like the Trump administration, Biden will try to prevent a ‘hot war’ with the PLA happening, so both militaries will try to come up with a more mature and stable crisis-management mechanism,” Song said.
