South China Sea risks highlighted by Britain-Russia encounter in Black Sea

Complex situation in disputed waterway increases risks but PLA Navy would not respond aggressively, observers believe

Lessons have been learned and communications improved after previous confrontations

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The Royal Navy destroyer HMS Defender arrives in Batumi on Saturday, after an encounter with a Russian patrol ship in the Black Sea. Photo: AFP

Published: 6:00pm, 29 Jun 2021Updated: 10:49am, 9 Sep 2021

Last week’s confrontation between Russia and Britain in the Black Sea has highlighted a possible scenario facing China and other countries in the disputed South China Sea, observers said.

However, the military experts said the People’s Liberation Army would not react aggressively when dealing with its foreign counterparts in the region, to prevent the risk of an escalation.

The British destroyer HMS Defender was passing through Ukrainian territorial waters when a Russian patrol ship fired warning shots and an overhead jet dropped bombs in its path, according to Russia’s defence ministry. Britain has said there were no shots or bombs.

Some Chinese military websites said that – regardless of whether the Russians had responded – the incident showed the complexity of the situation in the South China Sea, with a number of nations increasing their military presence in the waterway, which is claimed by several Southeast Asian countries as well as Taipei and Beijing.

The US has deployed numerous military aircraft and ships to the disputed waters for freedom of navigation operations, and some of its allies, including France, Germany and Britain, are also boosting their presence. The British aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth is currently in the Indo-Pacific region.

A commentary on South China Sea Wave, a Chinese social media account known for its hawkish stance, said PLA Navy ships had warned US vessels to leave the disputed waters, but were ignored.

It gave the example of a close encounter in December 2013 between Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and the USS Cowpens in the South China Sea, which ended with the Liaoning’s support vessels forcing the US ship to take evasive action to avoid a collision.

South China Sea Wave said the Chinese military might need to take similar action if the British carrier – equipped with F-35B fighter jet – sailed within 12 nautical miles of islands claimed by China in the waterway.