Chinese military plans for Taiwan hampered by second island chain
- Mainland magazine outlines scenario for attack on self-ruled island but concedes it would result in protracted war with US
- China’s next aircraft carrier equipped with electromagnetic catapults could reverse the strategic situation, it suggests
The article outlined a simulation of how an assault on the self-ruled island could play out, while acknowledging that the PLA’s ability to attack was constrained by the second island chain – a strategic group of islands in the middle of the West Pacific Ocean which includes the US military base on Guam, around 2,700km (1,677 miles) from Taiwan.
While the PLA’s attacking range extended to the second island chain, an attack on Guam would not be wise as it would inevitably lead to a prolonged conflict between the US and China, the magazine said. In contrast, the US could rapidly deploy military resources, including B-1B and B-52 heavy strategic bombers.
But the situation would be reversed if China’s next aircraft carrier, equipped with electromagnetic catapults and stealth planes, could get close to Hawaii. “At that time, the Taiwan issue and the future of the Western Pacific would have nothing to do with the US any longer.”
Despite acknowledging the current limitations on any PLA assault on Taiwan, the latest article also put forward a possible scenario, starting with the launch of DF-16 ballistic missiles and DF-10A ground attack cruise missiles to paralyse the island’s airports, early warning systems and anti-air missile bases.
The first round of missile attacks would be followed by J-16 multirole fighters destroying small airports and highways capable of acting as runways for military planes. The resulting air superiority would minimise the danger for the PLA soldiers who by that stage would be crossing the Taiwan Strait, the article said.
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At the same time, the PLA rocket force would launch an offensive against Taiwanese ground targets while the air force would send fighters to patrol up to 2,000km away with the aim of stopping planes from other militaries from coming to the island’s aid.
The magazine did not mention possible counter-attacks from Taiwan, the US or its allies in the region in response to the simulated scenario.
Relations between Taipei and Beijing have been chilly since Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party won power five years ago. Since last year, the PLA air force has conducted frequent patrols which have routinely entered the southwestern part of the island’s air defence identification zone.
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Former PLA military instructor Song Zhongping said any action against Taiwan would be a complicated and holistic operation, involving not only attacks but also mobilisation and logistical support. “We can never simplify such a complex military action, and some commentaries can only represent personal views and be seen as a reference only,” he said.
According to state broadcaster CCTV’s military channel, the PLA air force conducted an exercise early last month which saw J-16 fighter jets launching advanced air-to-surface missiles and conducting off-zone strikes against ground targets, indicating it was enhancing its attacking capabilities.
An exercise by the US military in July called Operation Iron Pacific involved more than 35 aircraft, including 25 F-22 stealth fighters 10 F-15 Strike Eagle fighters, and more than 800 personnel.
