Could anti-submarine drones help China keep up with US and Japan in underwater arms race?

A Chinese military magazine has urged China to develop unmanned anti-submarine platforms to better counter advanced submarines from rivals the United States and Japan. The magazine, Ordnance Industry Science Technology, published an article this month stating China could develop an unmanned anti-submarine patrol aircraft platform if it seized on the country’s advances in UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle, or drone) technology. “A new mode of anti-submarine warfare can thus be developed after deploying this unmanned submarine patrol platform to conduct normalised maritime patrols, rapid submarine detection and anti-submarine patrols,” the article said. “The UAV platform eliminates the need for aircrews and environmental control systems needed on a manned aircraft, and can fully use its advantages of being networked, cyber-enabled and unmanned.” It said an unmanned aircraft had far lower safety requirements than manned aircraft. “Not only can it fly stably at a lower altitude than manned aircraft, but it can also be used in complex weather conditions,” the article said. Unmanned platforms have relatively little in the way of airborne equipment, and they are more convenient to use, making them suitable for long-term submarine exploration operations, according to the magazine. At the end of the article, it specified the US and Japan as the purpose for developing the unmanned platform. “China has developed shore-based anti-submarine patrol aircraft. However, due to limitations in the aircraft’s capabilities, it cannot meet future combat needs to fight against advanced submarines from countries like the United States and Japan,” the article said. China vs US: beneath the surface of the submarine technology gap It called for the development of relevant technologies for next-generation shore-based anti-submarine patrol aircraft to remain proactive when dealing with rival submarines. China’s anti-submarine patrol aircraft, the KQ-200 – also known as Y-8Q or GX-6 – is based on the Y-8 platform, featuring WJ-6C six-blade turboprops. It is equipped with a surface-search radar under the nose, an electro-optic payload under the fuselage and a magnetic anomaly detector at its tail. The aircraft, which has been mass produced since 2015, has a range of around 5,000km (3,100 miles) and a patrol endurance of about 10 hours. Timothy Heath, a senior security expert from US think tank Rand, said developing unmanned anti-submarine patrol aircraft had both advantages and challenges. “The main advantage of an unmanned anti-sub aircraft is that it expands the reach and reduces the cost of anti-submarine efforts. However, the main technical challenge is the carrying capacity limitations of unmanned platforms – the unmanned variants tested by the US military can only carry about 10 sonobuoys, which is only one-quarter of the payload of a P-8 Poseidon anti-submarine aircraft,” Heath said. “The solution will probably be to deploy multiple UAVs with smaller payloads to cover the same area that a manned large aircraft can. But this in turn requires a capability to collect and process the signals remotely, which has its own technical challenges.” Ridzwan Rahmat, principal defence analyst at military publisher Janes, said the ability of unmanned platforms to hunt submarines hinged a lot on the submarine hunting systems they could deploy. “And while there is progress in the area of unmanned anti-submarine warfare, it is unlikely that manned systems will be completely eliminated, so the submarine hunting operation of the future will probably involve a mix of manned and unmanned assets across the air, land, and sea,” Rahmat said. While China is still researching how to develop these advanced aircraft, the US has already taken the lead. China reveals secret programme of unmanned drone submarines since 1990s In January, the US company General Atomics showed the MQ-9 dropping 10 sonobuoys – or small expendable sonar systems dropped from aircraft or ships conducting anti-submarine warfare or underwater acoustic research to relay information – to track a simulated submarine. It was tracked for about three hours in the first such successful test in the world. The Chinese military already has various operational drones to perform duties either undersea, on the surface or in the air, and has exported armed drones to other countries, including Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.