The underwater arms race: China, Aukus and a deepening submarine rivalry

In the Indo-Pacific many countries are interested in nuclear and non-nuclear submarines and are developing, replacing or expanding their fleets

The growing number of underwater vessels makes competition between them more dangerous, says academic

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A Pentagon says the Chinese navy had four Type 094A nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines in service. Photo: AFP

Published: 10:30pm, 11 Oct 2021Updated: 12:22am, 12 Oct 2021

Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines from the United States and Britain will spark a complex naval competition in the Indo-Pacific above and below the water, according to analysts.

The announcement of the Aukus pact and the plan by the US and Britain to equip Australia with, stealthy, long-range nuclear-powered attack submarines has clearly irritated its apparent target, Beijing, which will only accelerate its own rapid build-up of submarine fleets and anti-submarine forces to counter the new Anglo alliance.

On September 30, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said the move would “not only have a far-reaching impact on the international non-proliferation system, but also bring real threats to regional peace and stability”.

In his address to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on September 16, China’s ambassador to the UN in Vienna Wang Qun also warned that nuclear weapon states aiding non-nuclear states, such as Australia, could “give rise to serious negative implications on the ongoing international efforts” to address nuclear issues relating to North Korea and Iran.

“This is going to be a big threat to China, especially in the South China Sea region,” said Hu Bo, director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative. “Although Australia’s submarines can’t be delivered in the near future, it will trigger an arms race.”

A 2020 Pentagon report said the Chinese navy had four Type 094A nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) in service, six Type 093 nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) and 50 diesel-powered attack submarines. Type 095 SSN and Type 096 SSBN are also under development. In April this year, one more Type 094A entered service, commissioned by Chinese President Xi Jinping in person.

On the other side, Australia operates six Collins-class diesel-electric attack submarines, and they are planning to acquire “at least eight” SSNs. Although the new vessels will not be operational until after 2030, or even in the 2040s, senior cabinet ministers of Australia have mentioned they may lease some attack submarines from the US or Britain for temporary use or training as a stopgap solution.