Taiwan security chief says odds of war with mainland China next year are ‘very low’

Chen Ming-tong, director general of National Security Bureau, says chance of conflict is small barring any ‘contingent events’

Beijing has stepped up the pressure on the island recently, with mass sorties into air defence zone

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Taiwan has said it will defend itself if attacked but does not want to start a war. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 5:16pm, 20 Oct 2021Updated: 5:17pm, 20 Oct 2021

The odds of war with mainland China in the next year are “very low,” a top Taiwanese security official told lawmakers on Wednesday, amid heightened tensions between Taipei and Beijing, which claims sovereignty over the island.

Taiwan has repeatedly said that it will defend itself if attacked, but wants to maintain the status quo even as it complains of repeated sorties by the Chinese air force in its air defence identification zone (ADIZ).

“I think generally, within one year, the probability of war is very low,” National Security Bureau director general Chen Ming-tong told a parliamentary defence committee meeting.

“But there are many things you still have to pay attention to, called contingent events.”

Earlier this month, President Tsai Ing-wen said Taiwan would not be forced to bow to mainland China, but reiterated a desire for peace and dialogue with Beijing.

Barring any “contingent events,” Chen said, “in the next one year, two years or three years, during President Tsai’s term, I think there won’t be a problem”.

Chen cited the Covid-19 pandemic as an example of an unexpected event that has fundamentally changed society. “Nobody expected that,” he said.