Hypersonic ‘arms race risks military misstep’ from China, US and Russia
- Beijing denies testing a nuclear-capable superfast weapon, but Washington is already poised to increase its research spending
- With less time to analyse information, these weapons increase the chances of a military misjudgment
US Army General Mark Milley said the tests were “very concerning” and a “Sputnik moment” – recalling the pioneering 1957 satellite that gave the Soviet Union an early lead in the space race and shocked the US.
Gregory Hayes, chief executive of defence contractor Raytheon, said the US government was “years behind” China in developing the technology.
China tested its first hypersonic missile in 2014, while Russia joined the race in 2016 with two tests of its hypersonic glide vehicle dubbed Avangard.
Since then, Beijing has carried out a number of successful tests of the DF-17, a medium-range ballistic missile designed to launch hypersonic glide vehicles.
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The US has been actively developing hypersonic weapons since the early 2000s, under its prompt global strike programme, though funding has been relatively restrained, according to a report by the Congressional Research Service.
However, both the Pentagon and Congress have shown a growing interest in the development and near-term deployment of hypersonic systems, in part because of the advances in the technology made by Russia and China, it said.
The Pentagon’s latest budget request for hypersonic research was US$3.8 billion, up from last year’s US$3.2 billion.
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Zhao Tong, a senior fellow with the nuclear policy programme of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace based in Beijing, said the hypersonic arms race had begun.
“China has invested heavily in its technology, and the United States doubts Chinese intentions and feels threatened … It could also stimulate the United States to strengthen its missile defence capabilities,” he said.
“The risk of such an arms race is also great, as hypersonic weapons introduce more technological uncertainties and ambiguities compared with traditional ballistic missiles, which will increase the possibility of misjudgment and overreaction during military conflicts.”
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“The Biden administration has begun a review of US nuclear weapons policy … Given the increasing confrontation between China and the United States, and reports that China is expanding its nuclear arsenal and introducing new technologies, the US is strained and worried about changes in Beijing’s nuclear policies,” he said, adding these concerns would be factors in Washington’s development of a new nuclear policy.
China underlined its “no first use” nuclear policy in a position paper issued this month, and said nuclear-weapon states should abandon pre-emptive deterrence policies.
But Zhao said China’s emphasis on rapid response capabilities could mean less time for the military leadership to analyse information – something that could trigger a misjudgment.
Wu Riqiang, an international affairs professor at Renmin University of China, said that while the race for missile defence systems was under way, the US was catching up with hypersonic weapons.
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If China had launched nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles with the fractional orbital bombardment system, as reported by the Financial Times, it would mean Beijing had undertaken an initiative in the competition to break through US defence systems, he said.
The development of hypersonic weaponry is a challenge for existing missile defence technology because of their manoeuvrability at Mach 5 and beyond, as well as their ability to travel at lower altitudes than conventional ballistic missiles.
“We will have weapons to challenge the adversaries but most importantly I think our focus is how do we develop counter-hypersonics. That’s where the challenge will be,” Raytheon chief Hayes said.
Christopher Combs, the Dee Howard endowed assistant professor at the University of Texas in San Antonio, said the US had been approaching the problem from a different angle to China and Russia.
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He said that all intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) were hypersonic and generally faster than the boost-glide and scramjet systems – the two types of hypersonic weaponry under development – neither of which the US was currently fielding.
US politicians were under pressure to increase spending on missile defence, launch detection and hypersonic systems.
“So I expect you will see even more projects … on the US side,” he added.
Combs said the way China and Russia were applying pressure with their weapons tests and demonstrations “certainly has the potential to be destabilising”.
“The entire focus seems to be developing novel means to deliver nuclear warheads with decreased detection time, and in a way that the payload is more difficult to intercept. It puts a burden on the US to develop increasingly advanced means to counter these threats,” he said.
