Exclusive | China, US set for meeting of top military officials amid Taiwan tensions
- Telephone call in January being considered after consensus was reached during Xi-Biden summit on setting up discussions, sources say
- Arms control predicted to be among the main topics of discussion in the proposed talks
“It is one of the consensuses reached during the Xi-Biden summit,” one of them said. “The two leaders have ordered the militaries to discuss the arrangements.”
The format and details of the dialogue is yet to be finalised, but a source said that a telephone call or virtual conference in early January was being considered.
US military officials have sought to maintain an open line of communication with their Chinese counterparts to prevent potential flare-ups. But for a long time, chances for talks have been scarce because the two sides have not been able to agree on which Chinese official was Austin’s counterpart.
The US has been pushing for a meeting with Xu, second in command of the armed forces after Xi. But Chinese officials believe Wei should be the counterpart for Austin.
In August, Michael Chase, US deputy assistant secretary of defence for China, spoke with Chinese Major General Huang Xueping, deputy director of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) international military cooperation office.
A source close to the PLA said that it had started preparations for defence dialogue before the Xi-Biden summit, because both sides considered strategic stability a top priority.
During a meeting lasting three and a half hours, Xi and Biden agreed to continue discussions on a range of issues, even as tensions have continued to rise over issues including Taiwan.
Taiwan was a major issue discussed in the Xi-Biden video meeting. Xi issued a stern warning to his counterpart over the self-ruled island, which Beijing sees as a renegade province to be reunited by force if necessary.
Qin protested against the US decision to invite Taiwan to its Summit for Democracy next week, as well as a possible US diplomatic boycott of the Winter Olympics, to be held in Beijing in February.
US vs China: who has the stronger military?
In October, US General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed reports of China testing a hypersonic glide vehicle capable of evading American missile defence systems. US national security officials have expressed surprise and concern about China’s hypersonic advances.
Washington has repeatedly urged China to join arms control talks and proposed a new three-way arms control treaty with Russia.
Sources said arms control was likely to be among the main topics to discuss in the proposed military talks, but China has made clear that it does not want to address arms control with the US on a bilateral basis.
Despite a lack of political trust and confrontations in the East China and South China seas, the source said the Chinese and US militaries had improved communications.
“The PLA’s opposition to US warships’ Taiwan Strait transits has been toned down,” they said. “They found the warships just sailed through international waters on a route that saved about a third of their journey from the South China Sea to their base in Japan.”
Zhou Bo, a retired PLA senior colonel and a former director at the international military cooperation office, said the two militaries needed to first address the suspicion running deep between the two countries.
“China and the US have shared a functioning direct defence telephone link, the so-called hotline, since 2008,” said Zhou, now a senior fellow at Tsinghua University. “There are also various confidence-building measures that are intended for preventing unplanned encounters.
“But these mechanisms have not been able to prevent the US’ increasing military activities in the region. And when the US has defined the China-US relationship as one of extreme competition, it risks making people think that we are not so far away from a conflict.”
Zhou said the time may not yet be ripe for formal arms control talks, given that China’s nuclear arsenal was still dwarfed by the US’.
“We can touch on arms control in our dialogue, among other things, but the big gap in nuclear capabilities, as reflected in the number of nuclear warheads our two countries have, means there doesn’t seem to be a basis for launching separate formal talks at the moment.”
China is believed to have about 350 nuclear warheads, according to the Pentagon’s latest annual assessment of Chinese military power. The US has 3,800 warheads, but has forecast that China’s stockpile could quadruple by 2030.