Russian missteps in Ukraine offer China lessons in better military strategy, stronger troop morale
- With a history of military mentorship by Moscow and the use of Russian hardware, the PLA’s biggest takeaway should be humility, says one expert
- Another conclusion China could draw: redouble the commitment to expand its nuclear arsenal to counter US leverage
As militaries worldwide study Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine for lessons in modern warfare, the PLA is paying particular attention, experts say, given its reliance on Russian military hardware and lack of recent fighting experience – something it hopes to redress through deployments in hostile terrain like the Himalayas.
“The starting point is that Russia has been one of the models for China’s military reforms,” said Phillip Saunders, director of the Centre for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defence University in Washington. “There are lessons and questions. Why was Russia so bad and will China do better?”
While it will take years for the world’s largest military to fully absorb lessons from Ukraine, experts cite several takeaways expected to either drive PLA changes or vindicate continuing reforms. These include its “using the enemy to train the troops” strategy in places such as Aksai Chin, where at least four Chinese soldiers and 20 Indians died in a 2020 skirmish.
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“They’ve been acting as though they’re ready to go to war … You have the sword of Damocles over you that someone might shoot,” said Dennis Blasko, an independent analyst and author of The Chinese Army Today. “In Aksai Chin, they’ve really dug in and they’ve done it seriously.”
Beyond hardening troops, battle experience and casualties tend to shake up vested interests and military bureaucracy. “When someone’s shooting back at you, you learn a whole lot faster,” Blasko said.