Russia’s struggle to defeat Ukraine ‘a warning’ for China over risks of going to war
- The West’s response to the attack and support for Kyiv shows the risks for China if it faces a united front during any conflict
- Military analysts say the Russian military’s setbacks show China should not take the decision to wage war lightly
Russia launched a mass offensive on February 24, trying to seize Kyiv and other major cities after six years of fighting in the Donbas region. But instead of the quick and easy victory expected by Russian President Vladimir Putin and many observers, it has been pushed back from the capital and has found itself dragged into a quagmire.
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Ukraine brought Russia’s invasion to a standstill partly because of support from other countries.
The US, Britain and other Nato countries have been sharing vital intelligence information, including satellite images and communications intercepts, with Kyiv.
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Earlier this week, an unofficial Ukrainian military Twitter account posted a cache of uncensored satellite images from Google Maps showing Russian military bases and said Google had “opened access to Russia’s military and strategic facilities” – a claim the tech giant denied.
This prolonged conflict is a warning for Beijing that if the West unites in opposition to a conflict it could offset the perceived military advantage of any country, according to observers.
“It’s very difficult for Russia to totally defeat the thousands-strong Ukrainian military, especially when Ukraine is helped by lots of weapons from Western countries, which is the key reason why Kyiv has not been defeated easily,” said Zhou Chenming, a researcher from the Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank in Beijing.
“The biggest lesson for Beijing is, we shall never [decide to] wage war lightly.”
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An international relations specialist from China’s top-ranked Peking University, speaking on condition of anonymity, shared similar views.
“Russia’s economy and technology are not advanced, and its strategic calculation was wrong. Moscow believed they had an overwhelming advantage over Ukraine and could score a victory in a short time before the West intervened. However, the hi-tech weapons and intelligence support offset Russia’s advantage substantially,” the specialist said.
“This war made clear that China can never underestimate the strength of the United States and European countries, who still have shared interests in the political security area. Once provoked, their ability to cooperate and coordinate is still very strong.”
Besides the support from the West, Russian forces have made tactical errors such as the use of old weapons and reliance on missiles rather than warplanes, while its logistical failures have left troops on the front line exposed.
Russia had amassed a force of around 190,000 troops for this invasion and most of those have already been committed to the battle. But they have already lost about 10 per cent of that force, according to an estimate by the BBC.
Ridzwan Rahmat, principal defence analyst at the intelligence review service Janes, said the war in Ukraine may have dragged on longer than expected given the widespread adoption of guerilla and urban warfare tactics by the Ukrainian forces.
“While the Russians largely employed armour and other heavy machinery units, Ukraine soldiers adopted to go light and nimble with more portable weapons such as the Javelin and commercially available UAVs for surveillance,” Rahmat said.
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“The war in Ukraine may prompt Chinese defence planners to take a closer look at asymmetric warfighting techniques with a focus on smaller, more nimble weapons. This will be especially important when going up against a highly urbanised landscape, like Taiwan,” he said.
