
Why Taiwan may ultimately benefit from delays to US weapons delivery
- The late delivery of Paladin howitzers and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles – as a result of the Ukraine war – is unlikely to have an immediate impact
- But analysts say the island may instead seek more powerful weapons, including missiles than can target ships across the Taiwan Strait
Delayed weapons deliveries to Taiwan are unlikely to have an immediate impact on the island’s defences, but Taiwan may use the delay to request more advanced weapons from the United States, analysts have said.
The Ukraine war has delayed the delivery of at least two weapon systems – Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and Paladin self-propelled howitzers – because US arms production has been straining to meet demand from Ukraine.
Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at Taiwan’s Naval Academy, said the delay might give Taiwan an opportunity to upgrade the weapon lists it had ordered from the US.
Washington has promised to give Taipei alternative offers if the howitzers cannot be delivered on time.
One possible option is to order more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) – a more powerful weapon with a maximum operation range of up to 500km (30 miles), compared with 30km for the Paladins.
“Unlike the howitzer, the HIMARS is an offensive weapon that could stage frontline strikes, that means PLA warships could be hit on the mainland coasts once they are going to cross Taiwan Strait,” Lu said.
Last June, Taiwan’s defence ministry announced it had signed two contracts, including an estimated US$436 million deal for HIMARS systems that are expected to be delivered to Taiwan by 2027.
Lu said the delays might cause the Americans to increase the number of the HIMARS and other new weapons available to Taiwan after seeing the results of fighting between Russian and Ukrainian troops.
“The US is very clear that the battle operation thinking of the PLA is very similar to the Russian military,” Lu said.

“The Ukraine war showed how the US-sponsored Ukrainian troops applied a modern warfare all-domain command and control strategy – involving the army, navy, air force, space, cyberspace and electromagnetic spectrums – but the Russian navy, ground and air forces are still fighting independently.
“That might inspire the US to update the weapon combinations in the arms sales to Taiwan.”
Taiwan also ordered 250 Stinger air defence systems at a cost of US$246 million to be delivered between 2022 and 2026, but these were an old version of the system that the US military phased out 20 years ago.
The manufacturer Raytheon has warned it will struggle to provide some key components and Lu said this meant Taiwan might need to buy a new generation Stinger, which would be more expensive.
“Better means more expensive and Taipei doesn’t have another choice. The Americans are the only weapons suppliers who are willing to sell arms to Taiwan,” he said.
Despite the delays, analysts said Taiwan would not face an immediate threat from the mainland, due to the ongoing Ukraine war and the zero-Covid policy advocated by Beijing.
Beijing sees self-ruled Taiwan as a renegade province to be reunited by force if necessary.
“Taiwan is safe so far. The PLA needs more time to study the Ukraine war,” Macau-based military observer Antony Wong Tong said.
“The PLA would not fight an unsure battle, especially a war in the volatile Taiwan Strait will be much more challenging than the Ukraine war, which is taking place on a plain,” Wong added.
Drew Thompson, a visiting senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said the delays would not affect Taiwan’s defence capability significantly, because the island had built up its long and medium-range air defence systems, as well as other defensive weapons.
“These delays do not impair or degrade Taiwan’s defence, but of course, it is always better to have new systems delivered on time and to specification to support planning, manning and training efforts,” he said.
“The two systems that are reportedly delayed give Taiwan’s defence more depth, but they are additional complements to existing capabilities, rather than critical systems that close open gaps, so the possible delay is not particularly significant.”
Andrew Yang Nien-dzu, a former Taiwanese defence minister, said many scheduled training programmes and joint exercises between American troop and Taiwanese special forces had been affected by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, but the Taiwanese military was still able to operate all the active weapon systems and enhance regular drills.
“Taipei understands that all imported weapons need a certain time to be delivered, and has tried to improve home-made weapons and better operate existing equipment, which I believe so far it is able to cope with any surprise attack by the PLA,” he said.
