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A satellite image of China’s third aircraft carrier the Type 003 nearing completion. Photo: Google Earth

Ukraine war lessons spur China military shipbuilding surge: experts

  • Satellite images confirm reports shipyards are rushing to complete aircraft carrier and other warships delayed by pandemic
  • Russia’s exposed weakness piles pressure on PLA Navy to be ready for any change in status quo on Taiwan, analysts say
The war in Ukraine has increased Beijing’s sense of urgency to prepare for any change to Taiwan’s status quo, according to analysts, with satellite imagery confirming mainland China has stepped up efforts to get its military shipbuilding schedule back on track.

Recent pictures from commercial satellites show construction has resumed at a rapid pace at several shipyards run by the China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) conglomerate.

The PLA Navy’s schedule was disrupted by persistent Covid-19 outbreaks around the country, including Shanghai which has been in lockdown since March, delaying delivery of its third aircraft carrier.

The Type 003 carrier missed its launch date of April 23, the navy’s 73rd anniversary, and there have also been delays to other warships budgeted for in Beijing’s 14th five-year plan, from 2021 to 2025.

Work on the Type 003 restarted at Shanghai’s Jiangnan shipyard in late April, with strict pandemic management measures for its nearly 4,000 employees.

A recent satellite image showed work on the carrier is almost complete. Its three catapults – the electromagnetic aircraft launch systems – can be seen still covered by environmental shelters.

Another image, of Huludao shipyard in the northeastern province of Liaoning taken on May 4, shows two Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines and one Type 093 nuclear-powered attack submarine under construction.

The same image also shows work under way on at least five upgraded versions of the Type 052D Luyang class guided-missile destroyer.

Hong Kong-based military observer Liang Guoliang said the five ships would be Type 052DL – an upgraded version of the Type 052D with a longer deck and more advanced radar system.

“Indeed, the satellite image of Huludao shipyard also showed the nearby Type 093 is likely to be a bigger and more sophisticated version with a powerful vertical launching system (VSL), showing designs of all new vessels were upgraded,” Liang said.

A submarine hull spotted by Planet Satellite Imagery on a floating dock at Huludao shipyard in China’s northeastern Liaoning province between April 26 and May 3. Photo: AllSource Analysis

An open tender from the Huangpu Wenchong shipyard in Guangzhou for military hull-grade steel to be delivered by May 20 was seen by several commentators as a sign that work is about to begin on the Type 054B multi-role frigate, a bigger and faster version of the Type 054A corvette.

The new vessel is designed to accompany the navy’s next carriers. The PLA plans to build at least four aircraft carrier strike groups by 2030, to become the world’s second-biggest modern blue water navy after the US.

Ni Lexiong, a maritime expert at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said the conflict in Ukraine had exposed the vulnerability of Russian-designed weapons and combat concepts in modern warfare, pushing the PLA to overcome the delays caused by the pandemic.

“Many of the PLA’s conventional weapons systems and combat concepts have been inherited or copied from the Russian military’s predecessor, the Soviet Union army. The raging fights between the Russians and Ukrainians have put China in an embarrassing situation,” Ni said.

“As the United States is busy helping the Ukrainians defend against Russian invasion, Washington and Taipei are worrying that Beijing might take advantage of the ongoing crisis to attack Taiwan.”

A satellite image taken by Planet Labs on May 4 of a dry dock in Huludao shipyard. Photo: Reuters

An unattributed article on social media platform WeChat said the war in Ukraine had reminded China of the need to establish a powerful naval shipbuilding industry.

The article, posted by Military Express – an unofficial website that is often critical of China’s defence strategies – to its 450,000 followers, said maintaining a stable rate of growth in the PLA Navy’s fleet was the best way to keep high-quality and experienced engineers and workers.

“[China] needs to keep a certain growth of shipbuilding capacity, especially in the aftermath of the outbreak of the Ukraine war – a grey rhino (a highly probable yet neglected threat) – which is likely to be followed with a plot of Nato’s expansion by using Ukraine to trigger geopolitical confrontation in the Eurasian region,” it said.

“The US is going to copy the ‘Ukraine experience’ to [Taiwan], giving [Beijing] not enough time to develop new generation warships … to save time and let [the PLA] go to combat readiness as soon as possible, continuing to build more warships with mature technologies is the best option.”

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Ni said the Ukraine crisis had worsened the deep political mistrust between Beijing and Washington, with relations already at a low point because of President Joe Biden’s decision to retain his predecessor’s anti-Beijing policies and strengthen military, diplomatic and economic ties with Taipei.

“The increasing tensions will only push the mainland side to prepare for the worst – as the risk of a possible war for Taiwan is increasing,” he said.

According to Ni, the increasing engagements between Taipei and Washington – especially the recent US promises to sell more advanced weapons to the island – had only made Beijing more nervous.

A China Power Project report published by the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said the PLA Navy was expected to expand its fleet to 420 ships in the next four years, and to 460 by 2030.

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The report said China commissioned at least 28 ships last year, compared to the US Navy’s seven. The Chinese order includes three Type 055 cruisers – the world’s second largest destroyer after the US Navy’s Zumwalt-class stealth ship – and other advanced vessels.

“All those warships have been budgeted in the 14th five-year plan,” Liang said.

China unveiled its latest plan at the National People’s Congress in March last year, with a pledge to “make major strides in defence modernisation” under a policy of “civil-military fusion”, a strategy aimed at deepening and expanding synergies between commercial and military technologies and economies.

CSSC – the world’s largest shipbuilder – announced plans worth 18 billion yuan (US$2.8 billion) to expand its capacity to build more giant vessels, especially the profitable commercial ships.

US Navy chief says ‘phenomenal growth’ in China’s military requires strong response

The three-year project will enlarge the neighbouring Jiangnan and Hudong-Zhonghua shipyards on the Yangtze River, China’s principal navigable waterway.

Beijing announced this week that China’s shipbuilding industry grabbed nearly half of the global orders for container vessels – mainly container ships powered by liquefied natural gas – in the first quarter of this year.

“All the signs show Beijing is going to foster shipbuilding technologies and talent, an industrial campaign that is very similar to what the US did in the aftermath of the Second World War, which paved the way for the US to become the world’s number one superpower,” said Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at the Taiwanese Naval Academy.

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