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As Russia runs out of tanks, will China’s military take a hit?

  • Russia is struggling to replace frontline military equipment lost in its war in Ukraine
  • But China, its second-biggest arms buyer, has reduced dependency in recent years

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Russian tanks destroyed in a battle against Ukrainians in the village of Dmytrivka, close to Kyiv. Photo: AP
Russia has lost thousands of tanks, aircraft and weapons in its invasion of Ukraine. Abandoned Russian vehicles have shown them to be heavily reliant on components made by other countries – many of them sanctioning Russia – raising questions as to whether Moscow has the funds and parts to sustain the war.

It has now pulled decades-old T-62M tanks from storage for new battalions to be sent to Ukraine, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said in a daily update last week. The tanks, which entered Soviet service in 1983, were also photographed loaded on trains at a location verified to be the railway station of Russian-controlled Melitopol in southeastern Ukraine.

But while Russia is facing difficulties in replacing frontline military equipment and producing new arms, it may not have much of a knock-on effect on its second-largest weapons buyer: China. Analysts say the growing autarky of China’s military-industrial complex has minimised any impact of the Ukraine war on Chinese arms production.

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China had imported mainly jet propulsion systems and surface-to-air missiles from Russia, but it has been actively developing its own versions of imports, said Richard Bitzinger, a visiting senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, China bought destroyers, Kilo-class attack submarines and Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft, he said.

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“But in every one of these cases, the Chinese have started to develop Chinese counterparts, Chinese competitors, and then essentially and slowly been reducing their dependencies,” Bitzinger said.

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