Chinese PLA attack on Taiwan: at hand or too costly to consider?

Name: Taiwan holds missile exercise amid rising tensions with mainland China
Uploaded: 2022-06-17T07:58:53.000Z
Duration: 1 min 38 s
Description: Taiwan holds missile exercise amid rising tensions with mainland China

Head to head, Taiwan does not stand a chance with the mighty PLA, former army chief admits, even as Ukraine’s resistance bolsters island’s resolve

Taiwan’s rough terrain, heavily fortified islet outposts and Beijing’s own concerns about mass casualties and image might deter assault, say experts

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One US admiral has said an attack on Taiwan could come by 2027, the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army. Photo: Reuters

Agence France-Presse

Published: 3:58pm, 17 Jun 2022Updated: 4:46pm, 17 Jun 2022

On Taiwan’s tiny Penghu islands, the missile bases that sit next to white-sand beaches and bustling fish markets are a visceral reminder of the constant threat of attack from mainland China.

Despite the huge military discrepancy between the two sides, many analysts believe Taiwan’s location, inhospitable terrain and US support mean Beijing would find a full-scale assault extremely hard – and possibly too costly – to countenance.

Mainland China and Taiwan split at the end of a civil war in 1949 with the losing Kuomintang forces retreating to the island. Beijing sees democratically run Taiwan as part of its territory, and aims to retake it one day, by force if necessary.

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Taiwan holds missile exercise amid rising tensions with mainland China

Record Chinese fighter jet sorties into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone in recent months and increasingly aggressive rhetoric under President Xi Jinping have raised fears Beijing might contemplate acting on that pledge sooner rather than later.

The Chinese defence ministry last week said it would “not hesitate to start a war” to stop Taiwan becoming independent.

One US admiral has said an attack could come by 2027, the centenary of the mainland’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

“If we were to go head to head militarily, we don’t stand a single chance,” retired admiral Lee Hsi-min, head of Taiwan’s armed forces until 2019, said bluntly.

Former admiral Lee Hsi-min was head of Taiwan’s armed forces until 2019. Photo: AFP