Chinese PLA attack on Taiwan: at hand or too costly to consider?
- Head to head, Taiwan does not stand a chance with the mighty PLA, former army chief admits, even as Ukraine’s resistance bolsters island’s resolve
- Taiwan’s rough terrain, heavily fortified islet outposts and Beijing’s own concerns about mass casualties and image might deter assault, say experts
Despite the huge military discrepancy between the two sides, many analysts believe Taiwan’s location, inhospitable terrain and US support mean Beijing would find a full-scale assault extremely hard – and possibly too costly – to countenance.
Mainland China and Taiwan split at the end of a civil war in 1949 with the losing Kuomintang forces retreating to the island. Beijing sees democratically run Taiwan as part of its territory, and aims to retake it one day, by force if necessary.
The Chinese defence ministry last week said it would “not hesitate to start a war” to stop Taiwan becoming independent.
One US admiral has said an attack could come by 2027, the centenary of the mainland’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
“If we were to go head to head militarily, we don’t stand a single chance,” retired admiral Lee Hsi-min, head of Taiwan’s armed forces until 2019, said bluntly.
“Our soldiers here are all Taiwanese and will be fighting to defend their homeland,” said Chen Ing-jin, a Penghu historian and architect. “That makes a difference. Just look at Ukraine.”
Taiwan’s biggest advantage is its geography.
Amphibious assaults are exceedingly difficult and if the PLA was to attack Taiwan – and crucially hold it – Beijing would need to move hundreds of thousands of troops as well as equipment across the Taiwan Strait.
Even at its narrowest point the strait is 130km and weather conditions are notoriously unforgiving – with two monsoon seasons.
That leaves just two brief “windows of attack” – May to July and October – for such a large-scale operation, according to a US Naval War College report.
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With the likely early warning, and the weaponry Taipei has at its disposal, the PLA would probably incur high losses even in that first stage of transit, said James Char, associate research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
And while the small, flat outlying islands might in the end prove easy for Beijing to subdue, on Taiwan’s main island, the opposite applies.
The coastal terrain there “is a defender’s dream come true”, according to Ian Easton, author of The Chinese Invasion Threat.
He and his colleagues estimate that Taiwan only has 14 small beaches suitable for landing, and even those are bordered by mountains, cliffs or dense urban infrastructure.
“Landing on Taiwan is only part of the problem,” said Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Progress through Taiwan’s wetlands, mountains and densely populated urban areas will require a huge range of different combat skills and weapons.
“How is it going to sustain those forces once they are in position and advancing – how is it going to do the logistics?” Lin asked.
Beijing has spent hundreds of billions of dollars upgrading its military capabilities over the past decade, and its statistical dominance over Taiwan is enormous.
The PLA has over 1 million ground force personnel to Taiwan’s 88,000, a total of 6,300 tanks compared with 800, and 1,600 fighter jets to 400, according to the US Department of Defence.
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But many experts, including Char and Lin, question whether they are as yet capable enough.
Atlantic Council senior adviser Harlan Ullman put it more forcefully in a February paper: “China simply lacks the military capability and capacity to launch a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan for the foreseeable future.”
Lee pointed to the success of the Ukrainian mobile missile launcher that sank Russia’s Black Sea flagship, the Moskva.
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Taiwan has built up stockpiles of mobile missile batteries and shoulder-launched weapons but he said they needed lots more.
The factor that preoccupies Beijing most is who else might get involved in the conflict, Chinese military expert Song Zhongping said.
The United States officially maintains a “strategic ambiguity” on whether it would intervene militarily in the event of an attack. But it supplies Taiwan with military hardware and President Joe Biden has said multiple times that Washington would intervene.
The “extent, depth and breadth” of US and other allies’ involvement would greatly determine how any conflict would play out, said Song.
Some war game scenarios see the PLA taking out US bases in the Pacific to kneecap its ability to respond. Washington would be heavily reliant on aircraft carriers operating far from home.
To counter that threat Beijing has prioritised the development of hypersonic “carrier killer” missiles and militarised multiple atolls in the disputed South China Sea.
But an attack on US forces could provoke a more determined backlash and draw American allies into a global conflict.
The question of whether Beijing would be prepared to cause mass casualties with an attack, while risking its domestic and international image, is a fundamental one.
“You need to let China know that it will suffer tremendous losses, and even then it may still not be able to occupy Taiwan,” said Lee. “So that China will think that the best way to resolve the Taiwan problem is by peaceful means.”
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“China might come up with other formulations or creative diplomatic strategic solutions to declare unification with Taiwan without actually having achieved that,” the CSIS’ Lin said.
“The timing depends on the behaviour of the Taiwanese separatists and if they insist on advocating for Taiwan’s independence,” he said.
The island’s 23 million people have increasingly embraced a distinct Taiwanese identity and President Tsai Ing-wen, who views the island as a sovereign state, has won two elections.
The next presidential elections are due in 2024 and Ukraine’s fate has only further hardened attitudes towards mainland China.
In a survey conducted in May, 61.4 per cent of respondents said they were willing to take up arms in the event of an attack.
The decision ultimately rests with President Xi, the most authoritarian Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, who has been central to the rising fears that Beijing will attack Taiwan.
Xi is on the cusp of securing an unprecedented third term this year. And since he came to power, Char said, “there’s been a total shift from the previous mantra of peace and development [towards Taiwan]”.
Instead, he added, Xi has pushed the mantra “accomplish something magnificent and great”.