As Chinese PLA drones fly closer to Taiwan, observers warn of airspace incursions

The People’s Liberation Army might fly drones over Taiwan on reconnaissance and strike missions to exhaust the island’s anti-aircraft missiles, some Chinese military observers believe. This comes as Beijing conducts unprecedented large-scale drills around Taiwan, in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the self-governed island which the mainland had repeatedly warned against. Two types of drones – identified as a BZK005 reconnaissance and a TB-001 reconnaissance/attack drone – were spotted flying over waters off the northeastern coast of Taiwan on Thursday, the Japanese defence ministry said. Another unidentified unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), presumed to be a PLA drone, flew in from the East China Sea to circle the high seas off Taiwan’s northeastern coast, it said. Why China’s war games around Taiwan are different this time The BZK-005 high-altitude, long-range UAV is a reconnaissance aircraft with an estimated range of 2,400km (1,490 miles) and a maximum endurance – or capacity to stay in flight – of 40 hours. The drone was confirmed to have been used by the Chinese military in maritime surveillance operations over the East China Sea in April 2019. The TB-001, nicknamed “twin-tailed scorpion”, on the other hand, is a medium-altitude, long-range (MALE) combat UAV. It has a range of around 6,000km and endurance of 35 hours. Japanese authorities at the end of July had spotted it flying through the Miyako Strait off Okinawa before lingering off the west coast of Taiwan, as the island carried out its annual Han Kuang military exercises. Beijing said it sent the two drones on Thursday to monitor target-hitting by rockets, which was accurate, state news agency Xinhua reported. Fu Qianshao, a retired Beijing-based air force weapons expert, said it was possible that more Chinese drones used for strikes, as well as surveillance and mapping, could be launched into Taiwan’s airspace in the future. The first time this happened was on Wednesday night – when a drone flew over Taiwan-controlled Quemoy island, also known as Kinmen, hours after Pelosi wrapped up a trip that Beijing has termed a “provocation”. “[If Beijing wants to be] crossing [Taiwan] or its archipelago, a drone is likely to be the first choice. No soldiers need be sacrificed if something were to happen to a drone, and it can also be used flexibly,” Fu said. The drones sent over Quemoy might be used for mapping and surveillance, he added. Taiwan faces dilemma as PLA drones start flying over Quemoy Last year, the PLA for the first time showed off retired 1950s era J-6 fighter jets that had been converted into UAVs, with satellite photos of two of its east coast bases near Taiwan showing a large number of the jets on site. Fu said the J-6 drones could be used in possible future combat missions to take back the island, which Beijing considers breakaway territory awaiting reunification. “If drones can pass through Quemoy, they can pass through Penghu [archipelago held by Taiwan], and can pass through the island of Taiwan. The warning is being gradually escalated.” “It is a good measure to convert retired aircraft into combat drones. [The J-6] could be dispatched during wartime, but not during a sensitive time [such as the current drills],” Fu said. Song Zhongping, a Hong Kong-based military commentator and former PLA instructor, was of the same view. He said the J-6 unmanned drone, given its large size and use in strike operations, could easily lead to accidents if it was allowed to fly during drills. UAVs have many functions, and large ones are mainly used for strategic reconnaissance, according to Song. UAVs including the modified J-6 version could also be used in suicide missions, he said. “Therefore, UAVs are likely to have multiple functions in any future combat in the Taiwan Strait,” he said. “Of course, a large number of drones can actually overwhelm Taiwan’s anti-aircraft missiles,” Song said, referring to the UAV swarm diverting the missiles away from more potent threats. Who will fly Taiwan’s fighter jets? Pilot shortage dire as PLA tests defences The PLA’s large number of surveillance and attack UAVs could also be launched for operations such as decapitation strikes, Song said, referring to a military strategy aimed at removing the enemy leadership or commander. However, retired PLA colonel Yue Gang said the Chinese military was unlikely to fly drones over Taiwan during drills, as this could easily lead to armed conflict. “The possibility of PLA drones flying over the [main] island of Taiwan is low. The maximum flying height of drones is 10,000 metres. Several types of anti-aircraft missiles of the Taiwanese army can reach that height,” Yue pointed out. “Drones flying overhead may be damaged [by hits] and shot down, which would induce armed conflict or even a regional war, which is not the purpose of the exercises this time around.”