US-Chinese tensions over Taiwan will come to a head but won’t boil over, say observers

Beijing warns US against stirring up ‘bigger crisis’ as Washington vows ‘further steps’ after live-fire PLA drills encircle Taiwan

Despite tough rhetoric, actual conflict is not the aim for either side and there is room for a reset, say analysts in Beijing and Malaysia

Reading Time:3 minutes

US Navy aircraft carrier the USS Ronald Reagan will be extending its deployment amid the Taiwan crisis sparked by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit. Photo: US Navy

Published: 6:37pm, 7 Aug 2022Updated: 7:19pm, 7 Aug 2022

Tensions triggered by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit will continue to mount, but military conflict over the issue is unlikely, most regional observers believe.

This comes as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned Washington not to “stir up a bigger crisis”, after the US announced it would take “further steps” by sending aircraft and warships to the waters near Taiwan in the coming weeks.

Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University, said the strain in international relations is a natural result of strategic interactions, and the two nations are not close to engaging in combat.

“Confrontation will [escalate] but a conflict is still unlikely, even as the suspension of military communication has surely made prevention of incidental clashes more difficult,” Shi said. Beijing has suspended a range of defence and military exchanges with the US, as part of a slew of countermeasures in response to Pelosi’s “provocative” visit.

On Thursday, just as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) began four days of intensive live-fire drills around Taiwan, the Pentagon said its Japan-based aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan would be extending its scheduled deployment in the Western Pacific.