China’s show of force over Taiwan a chance to test military coordination but results unclear: analysts
- Beijing has touted PLA forces’ close cooperation, accompanied by evidence of smoother logistics involving army long-range artillery and missile units
- But military yet to test some capabilities likely needed for an outright invasion, like sustained artillery bombardment or blockading ships
Amid the fresh tensions, Beijing touted PLA forces’ close cooperation, accompanied by evidence of smoother logistics involving army long-range artillery and missile units within the military’s Eastern Theatre Command, analysts said at a Centre for Strategic and International Studies event.
“If the army and rocket force fires were coordinated, that would suggest some level of joint command-and-control at the theatre level,” which is an impression Beijing hopes to convey, said Roderick Lee, research director at Air University’s China Aerospace Studies Institute. “The activities we’re seeing are very much intended for messaging and deterrence purposes.”
The PLA has yet to test, for example, some capabilities it would likely need for an outright invasion of Taiwan, including sustained artillery bombardment or blockading ships in the waters around the island.
China’s unprecedented exercises this month also underscore its growing use of grey-zone tactics, namely combining military and non-military operations. It marshalled diplomatic, economic, financial, informational and cyber coercion to make its point.
“What we’re seeing is broadly consistent with China’s grey-zone approaches,” said Cristina Garafola, a policy researcher at the Rand Corporation. “We’re likely to see that continue going forward, as well as these kinds of grass-roots pressure efforts to affect the opinion in Taiwan society.”
“I’ve got to believe another shoe will drop, one way or the other,” said M Taylor Fravel, director of the security studies programme at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “I don’t think, in other words, that the genie can be put back in the bottle.”
But the US navy will want to avoid looking weak or appearing to accept Chinese military vessels sailing across the median line into Taiwan waters. That, in turn, could set off a potential tit-for-tat cycle of escalation.
“This is the likely early stage of a crisis that is going to continue to percolate for months,” said Christopher Twomey, an associate professor at the US Naval Postgraduate School.
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“It’s going to be important for us to send signals to our allies, as well as to China, that we aren’t being deterred by these exercises from freedom of navigation and the rights that accord the US Navy, and that response is going to be provocative to the Chinese.”
The problem, analysts said, is that such a tack raises the risk of Beijing feeling its concerns are being ignored and that its signalling has not been taken seriously. Beijing could be led to believe it must react even more forcefully next time.
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“So, if they were to talk about a crisis that came out of one of these visits, that would be a personal failure,” Garafola said, adding that many factors were at play. “This is the first couple of weeks of something where we could see more potential flashpoints.”