US nuclear arms race with China ‘futile’, think tank warns

Washington can no longer rely on conventional military superiority to prevent an attack on Taiwan, report says

It also says China’s efforts to expand its nuclear arsenal means Washington should look at other forms of deterrence

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China is building up its nuclear capabilities. Photo: AP

Published: 6:00am, 2 Oct 2022

A US attempt to win a nuclear arms race with China would be “an exercise in futility”, a think tank has said.

A report from the Brookings Institution also warned that the US had lost its conventional military supremacy over China in East Asia, making it harder to deter any attack on Taiwan.

Concern that Beijing will use force to bring the island under its control is growing in Washington, with General Anthony Cotton, the nominee to head the Pentagon’s nuclear operations, telling a Senate committee that he agreed nuclear arms could help deter such a move.

The report published on Tuesday argued that the apparent pace of China’s nuclear expansion might make it more confident about using conventional force, but for the US, a war with China over Taiwan would “almost inevitably raise risks of both inadvertent and deliberate nuclear escalation”.

Until recently China was believed to have around 200 to 300 deliverable nuclear warheads, compared with the more than 4,000 held by the US and Russia. But last November a Pentagon report said China could have up to 700 warheads by 2027 and at least 1,000 by 2030.

There are many obstacles preventing the US from regaining outright nuclear superiority, according to the Brookings report, including the White House’s commitment to strategic stability and nuclear arms controls.