China’s reshuffled military leadership sends clear signal on Taiwan focus
- Former Eastern Theatre Command head General He Weidong becomes second-ranked CMC vice-chairman
- General Zhang Youxia promoted to first-ranked CMC vice-chairman despite being 72 years old
The Communist Party unveiled a major reshuffle in China’s top military leadership on Sunday, sending a clear signal that the People’s Liberation Army will be focused on Taiwan in the next five years and beyond.
What Xi Jinping’s shortened congress work report did not mention
President Xi Jinping, who secured a precedent-defying third term as party leader and CMC chairman, has set 2027 as a milestone in the PLA’s modernisation strategy in military doctrines, personnel training, equipment and technologies.
The US Department of Defence said last year that the modernisation goal could provide Beijing “with more credible military options in a Taiwan contingency”.
The 65-year-old He raced through the ranks in a little more than a decade. In 2008, he was still a major general with the former 31st Group Army based in Fujian, where he spent his formative years. Five years later, he became the military commander of Jiangsu province, which was part of the Nanjing military region that oversaw China’s eastern theatre.
In 2017, he became a lieutenant general, and was then promoted to full general in 2019 when he became commander of the Eastern Theatre Command, which has an area of responsibility that covers Taiwan and the East China Sea. Before becoming the CMC’s vice-chairman, he had joined the CMC’s Joint Command Centre – the top command and control organ of the Chinese armed forces.
Huge PLA drills around Taiwan seen as warning to US and allies
When Xi was first re-elected party chief in 2017, He was not among the 200-odd members of the Central Committee, but on Sunday he became one of the 24 members of the Politburo. He had reportedly planned the military exercises Beijing staged around Taiwan in response to the visit to the island in August by Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the US House of Representatives.
Song Zhongping, a military commentator based in Hong Kong, said the promotion of He, with his strong background in Fujian, showed the PLA was “strengthening combat preparations for military struggles against Taiwan”.
Li Nan, a visiting senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute, said tackling Taiwan was one of the reasons He was promoted to vice-chairman.
“Fujian has always been the frontline province for conquering Taiwan,” he said.
Beijing sees Taiwan as a breakaway province to be brought under its control, by force if necessary. Most countries do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state.
Admiral Miao Hua, 66, who was political director of the 31st Group Army in 1999, is another member of the CMC with a strong Taiwan-related background.
Miao, who heads the CMC’s political work, served as political commissar of the PLA Navy from December 2014 to September 2017, and was political commissar of the Lanzhou military region in 2014.
Zhang’s promotion to first-ranked vice-chairman went against unwritten party norms that previously required Central Committee members to retire before they turned 68.
Zhang has been instrumental to Xi’s military reforms, launched in 2015 with the aim of improving the PLA’s combat-readiness by reforming its Soviet-inspired command structure, due to his close ties with military leaders and clout.
During Xi’s first five-year term, Zhang oversaw the PLA’s armaments and equipment and space exploration programmes.
Zhang’s father, Zhang Zongxun, fought against Nationalist forces in the Chinese civil war as a commander of a group army in China’s northwest when Xi’s father, Xi Zhongxun, was the group army’s political commissar.
Li said Zhang Youxia’s promotion showed that Xi needed someone he trusted deeply to take charge of the PLA and train younger officers.
“Comparatively speaking, Zhang Youxia, except for his age, is highly qualified,” he said.
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Liang Guoliang, a Hong Kong-based military commentator, said Zhang Youxia would help General Liu Zhenli, a war hero from a new generation, grow into his new CMC role.
“Zhang has the experience and Liu has the battle record,” Liang said. “This is about passing the baton.”
Liu and General Li Shangfu joined the CMC on Sunday, where they will serve alongside Miao and another incumbent, General Zhang Shengmin, the chief of military discipline.
Former CMC vice-chairman General Xu Qiliang, Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe and Joint Staff Department chief General Li Zuocheng – all 68 or older – have retired from the CMC.
Zhang Shengmin is likely to continue overseeing military discipline because he was the only CMC member announced on Saturday as one of the deputy secretaries of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the party’s top anti-corruption watchdog.
With Miao and Zhang Shengmin likely to reprise their roles, and Liu being the only CMC member to have combat experience, which would put him on a path towards becoming chief of joint staff, 64-year-old Li Shangfu would be left to succeed Wei as defence minister.
Li Shangfu was previously director of the CMC’s equipment development department. He was promoted to full general in 2019, a year after he was subjected to sanctions by the US for buying Russian fighter jets and surface-to-air missiles.
Liang said that if Li was made defence minister, it would raise questions about whether the US and Chinese defence ministers could maintain communication.
“Once Li became defence minister, would the US pick up the phone for the China-US military hotline? Will the US withdraw its sanctions? The CMC arrangement is all very interesting.”
Li Nan said Li Shangfu was a good candidate for defence minister because he was a technocrat and had expertise in aerospace technology.
“He might be sanctioned but that doesn’t prevent him from being a diplomat,” he said. “If he needs to go to the US, the US government can make an exception.”
