Beijing in no rush to send PLA across Taiwan Strait, say Chinese analysts
- Mainland China has never said it has a timeline, but US officials have stepped up warnings
- Peaceful reunification preferred because use of force would involve huge costs
Recent assessments by senior US officials have included calls for the US Navy to step up preparations for an invasion by the People’s Liberation Army as soon as this year.
Chinese analysts said there was a possibility of war breaking out in the Taiwan Strait in the coming years, and it could be rising, with potential triggers including the upgrading of US ties with the island or a declaration of independence by the Taiwanese authorities.
They said the mainland side and its military had plans to deal with different scenarios regarding Taiwan, but resolving the issue peacefully was still the priority and the cost of using force would be huge.
03:50
Mainland China white paper declares ‘greatest sincerity’ for peaceful reunification with Taiwan
Zhang Wensheng, deputy dean of the Graduate Institute for Taiwan Studies at Xiamen University, said preparations should be made to acquire the military capability needed to seize Taiwan, but that was not equal to using it immediately.
Zheng Jian, a member of the National Society of Taiwan Studies, a think tank based in Beijing, said: “The resolution of the Taiwan issue should be made based on the state and military situation at the time.
“Our top task is national rejuvenation, mainly through development. Peaceful settlement of the Taiwan issue and stability in the strait can create a good environment for our development – it remains our best choice.”
Mainland China and Taiwan split in 1949 at the end of a civil war when the Nationalists were defeated by Communist Party forces and fled to Taipei.
China has no time frame for Taiwan reunification, even if US says so: envoy
Beijing sees the island as part of China and has never ruled out the use of force to take control of it. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state. Washington, however, opposes any attempt to take the island by force.
It was the first time a Chinese leader had publicly mentioned such a need.
Beijing has never said it has a timetable, but speculation about one has been going on ever since.
At last month’s five-yearly Communist Party national congress, Xi said Beijing would do its utmost to achieve peaceful reunification with Taiwan, but would not rule out the use of force to bring the island under its control.
Tensions in the Taiwan Strait rose after Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the US House of Representatives, ignored warnings from Beijing and visited Taiwan in August. Her visit triggered unprecedented military drills by the PLA around the island.
Is it worth the superpowers fighting over Taiwan?
“So when we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind, that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window. I can’t rule it out,” he said in a discussion hosted by the Atlantic Council on October 20.
Chinese officials then denied the existence of a time frame. Jing Quan, the third-ranked diplomat at the Chinese embassy in Washington, said on Wednesday there was no “so-called timeline over the Taiwan issue”.
“Some people are talking about five years, 10 years, 2035, 2049. I don’t think so,” Jing said. “We want to get united as soon as possible, but we don’t have any timeline.”
Zhou Zhihuai, a former director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Taiwan research institute, said in 2017 it was time to study the timeline issues.
China slams report US to deploy bombers in Australia amid Taiwan tensions
“If the reunification is not finished, how can we say by then that we have achieved the second centennial goal and built a modern socialist country?” Zhou said.
“National unification and national rejuvenation are inextricably linked. Chinese citizens would not allow it if you say the issue will be resolved by 2049, as that is dragging on for too long.”
But Yu Xintian, president of the Shanghai Institute for Taiwan Studies, said that rushing to come up with a timeline would have a “counterproductive effect”.
“The international situation sees great changes and it can be changed at any time,” she said. “Setting up a timeline is actually causing embarrassment to ourselves.
What a new line in China’s constitution on Hong Kong says about Taiwan
“We are still facing a lot of unpredictable conditions. It is impossible, and unwise, to set a definite goal based on unpredictable factors.”
Yu said the PLA should have plans to cope with different scenarios rather than a timetable. In his speech to last month’s party congress, Xi said it should be prepared for “local wars”.
Zheng said that while Beijing had no timeline to settle the Taiwan issue, Washington was playing the Taiwan card to contain and isolate China, and “shaping strategic vigilance against China”.
“Even though we don’t subjectively specify a timetable to solve it, the US is shaping the situation,” he said.
In part, the US assessment is based on Beijing’s goal of building a world-class military by 2027, with a US report recently declaring it remained “aggressive” in the scope of its provocative behaviour and “formidable” in its capability.
Zheng said the use of force was not a matter of capability, but cost.
Resolving the Taiwan issue by force would involve huge costs in lives and property, which went against the development goal that remained the party’s top priority and the requirements of post-reunification governance, he said.
Peaceful reunification was in line with Beijing’s goals for 2035 – the first stage in its two-step drive to become a great modern socialist country – which covered items ranging from technological self-reliance to national security and rural development, Zheng said.
“We don’t want a speedy reunification, but a high-quality one,” he said.
Zhang, from Xiamen University, said: “Of course, what we hope for most is to achieve reunification in a peaceful way, because in this way, the losses on both sides of the strait will be minimal, and it will be most beneficial to promoting the emotional integration of Chinese people on both sides of the strait.”
Even though the PLA was capable of securing Taiwan’s reunification by force by 2027, Zhang said that capability could also be used to put pressure on the island and deter any moves towards independence.
Beijing’s Taiwan timetable will not be rushed by US: China analysts
The 2005 Anti-Secession Law provides a legal framework for Beijing to use non-peaceful means to guard against pro-independence forces in Taiwan and the island’s possible separation from mainland China. But Beijing has remained vague about when and under what circumstances the law would be invoked.
Non-peaceful means would only be employed when the “possibilities for peaceful reunification were completely exhausted”, Zhou said.
But peaceful resolution through cross-strait consultations remained possible, he said.
“Now there are still voices from Taiwan eager to sign a peace agreement,” Zhou said. “If the voices and public opinion are getting stronger and stronger … the opportunity for cross-strait peace talks still exists.”
In his most explicit statement on the issue, US President Joe Biden said in September that America would defend the island if it was invaded.
Such provocations by the US were dangerous and irresponsible, Zheng said, because they might prompt the mainland to resolve the Taiwan issue “ahead of schedule”.
07:07
Why mainland China is holding military drills in Taiwan Strait following US Speaker Pelosi’s trip
In November last year, Xi warned Biden at a virtual summit that Beijing was prepared to take “decisive measures” if Taiwan made any moves towards independence that crossed Beijing’s red lines. In July, he again warned Biden not to play with fire on the Taiwan issue.
Zheng said Xi’s remarks reflected Beijing’s determination and the PLA’s capability to resolve the Taiwan issue “all at once”, but a war would only be triggered by US provocations and coercion.
“China and the United States still have space to walk within the red line and spend the next 10 years together in peace – the possibility and space exist,” Zheng said.
US and China must avoid the tragedy of armed conflict over Taiwan
Zhang said military action against Taiwan before 2024 – or by 2027 – was not impossible, but it would depend on the activities of the US and Taiwan, rather than any spontaneous move by Beijing.
“If the US or Taiwan dare to provoke, the speculation will become a reality,” he said.
For example, if Taiwan sought independence through its elections in 2024, it would face the use of force by the mainland, Zhang said.
Mainland China was “very cautious” about using force, he said, “but once the war begins, we will do it at any cost – the US should not have any fantasy over this”.
