South China Sea: Xi-Biden meeting on G20 margins will not ease tensions, observers say

Expect more restraint, but antagonising behaviour will continue, researcher at Rand Corporation says
Despite warmth of meeting, ‘key points of contention’ such as Taiwan and the South China Sea have not gone away, analyst in Australia points out

US-China relations

Kristin Huang

Published: 6:00am, 20 Nov 2022

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Friendly gestures at the first in-person meeting between the Chinese and US leaders might prompt more restraint over the South China Sea, but tensions would persist, observers said.

Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden met on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Bali on Monday, their first face-to-face talks since Biden took office in January 2021.

The three-hour meeting reportedly featured blunt exchanges on thorny issues such as Taiwan, human rights, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, trade practices and food security.

Xi-Biden talks: Taiwan is still the big red line in China-US relations

Before their talks, the two leaders shook hands warmly as they smiled for the cameras in front of their national flags, with Biden putting his hand on Xi’s back at one point.

However, the main points of conflict remain, according to Malcolm Davis, a senior security analyst at the Canberra-based Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

“I think the key points of contention in the relationship haven’t gone away, and the South China Sea and the Taiwan issue [make up] one of those key points.”

China has territorial disputes with multiple neighbours over the South China Sea, most of which it claims under what it calls its historical “nine-dash line”.

Davis said China had not given up on its claims in the South China Sea nor walked back from its nine-dash line stance; and still maintained bases on artificially built structures such as the Fiery Cross and Subi reefs on the contested Spratly Islands off the Philippines.

Fortified South China Sea islands help project Beijing’s power: experts

“The US and its allies, including Australia, will continue to make transits through international waters and airspace in the region … Japan no doubt will also operate in the region, as well as other actors, so I don’t see how anything has changed substantially,” Davis said.

Sino-US affairs expert Liu Weidong, from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also said it was too early to forecast any positive implications.

“I think the major purpose of the summit was to stabilise the US-China relationship and prevent it from further declining into conflict,” Liu said.

“Until the two countries can significantly improve political and social relations, the possibility of improving their military ties is very small, or almost non-existent.”

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Fishermen in South China Sea are at the centre of territorial crossfires

Timothy Heath, a senior international defence researcher at the Rand Corporation, said the two countries were likely to exercise more restraint on the South China Sea, even though behaviours that antagonise the other side would continue.

“China and the United States have expressed a willingness to ease tensions, but there was no agreement on the most divisive issues. Overall, however, the efforts to reduce tensions should add some stability in the South China Sea and generally reduce the risk of a crisis, at least for the short term,” Heath said.

China has built seven artificial islands in the South China Sea, creating more than 1,000 hectares (2,470 acres) of new land since 2013, according to the CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. Such moves have heightened concerns among rival South China Sea claimants, such as Vietnam and the Philippines.

China has become more ‘aggressive and dangerous’ to US says chair of Joint Chiefs

Days after the Xi-Biden meeting, US Vice-President Kamala Harris arrived in Asia for a visit to Thailand and the Philippines. The trip includes a stopover at Palawan next week, which would make her the highest-ranking US official ever to visit the southern Philippine island.

Palawan, on the eastern edge of the South China Sea, sits close to the Spratlys, parts of which are claimed by China, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan. It offers a valuable perch from where to monitor activity in the vast waterway, including China’s newly built outposts.

Earlier this month, retired Chinese major general Yao Yunzhu, an academic committee member at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy, said worsening relations between China and the US were raising the risks of a maritime conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.

“The confrontation in Sino-US relations continues to rise, so it is difficult to ignore the possibility of a maritime military conflict,” Yao said.