Is the US Navy’s ageing fleet opening the Davidson window for a PLA attack on Taiwan?
- The US fleet will decline in strength and power as older vessels are retired and new ones take time to go into service, reports warn
- At the same time, China is expanding its ability to project force far from home
In its analysis of the US Navy’s shipbuilding plans for the 2023 financial year, the Congressional Budget Office said the navy would shrink from 292 “battle force” ships in 2022 to a low of 280 in 2027 as old vessels were phased out and new ones were slowly brought into service.
During the process, the firepower of the US fleet, measured by numbers of vertical launch missile cells on surface vessels and submarines, torpedoes and daily tactical aircraft sorties from carriers, would also decline by 13 per cent over the next decade.
The navy does plan to expand its fleet in the next 30 years though, with the Department of Defence suggesting that up to 340 new ships could be bought to take the total to 367, depending on the investment.
Whatever the number, the purchases would come at a great expense, with shipbuilding costs anywhere from 23 per cent to 35 per cent higher than the average over the past five years and at least 14 per cent more than the navy estimates.