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Deals totalling $40 billion were struck at this year’s Zhuhai air show, the organisers said. Photo: AP

Are China’s integrated arms systems a match for South Korean rivals?

  • As Seoul prepares to snatch Beijing’s fourth-place ranking in global weapons sales, China is switching its focus to a high-value approach
  • Arms sales have been speeding up for both countries because of the war in Ukraine and regional tensions
This year’s Zhuhai air show – China’s premier arms and aviation trade fair – revealed a clear trend away from individual weapons sales towards integrated systems, a move which observers said would insulate its position against rising competitors like South Korea.

Deals worth a total of US$40 billion were struck at the China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition in Zhuhai last month, organisers said. No breakdown was given between civilian aircraft sales and arms agreements.

China unveils anti-drone ‘hard and soft kill’ system at Zhuhai air show

Da Ivan, a military columnist in China, said the air show revealed a clear trend in Chinese military exports of “providing systematic solutions rather than individual weapons, which would be a comparative advantage to South Korea”.

Da pointed to Casic’s 12-device anti-drone system and Norinco’s “new-generation army brigade combat team” – able to equip 10 battalions of tank, anti-tank, infantry, artillery, air defence, drones, logistics and support operations – as examples on display at Zhuhai.

He also suggested there were opportunities for China to fill gaps in the market created by tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia, one of its main buyers, as well as Russia’s war in Ukraine which has hugely affected Russian exports.

South Korea is on track to surpass China in its share of international arms sales, with a government research institute in Seoul suggesting last month that it may already have done so.

South Korean arms exports in 2022 are more than double last year’s historic high, with US$17 billion in sales, as of November, and the potential to reach US$20 billion if two deals in negotiation can be secured this month.

The new South Korean president, Yoon Suk-yeol, has made it a main policy goal to replace China as the world’s fourth-largest weapons supplier.

“The defence industry is a new future growth engine and the pivot of hi-tech industry,” Yoon said last week, at a meeting with warplane developer Korea Aerospace Industries.

But observers said South Korea’s rapid rise up the ranks was unlikely to directly affect China’s business, which had also been picking up speed against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and rising regional tensions.

One reason is the very different markets targeted by the two countries. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China’s primary clients are in South Asia and Africa. No European countries bought arms from China.

As the world arms up, South Korea aims to surpass China in military exports

About 60 per cent of weapons exported from China between 2016 and 2020 went to Pakistan, Algeria and Bangladesh, SIPRI found. Last year, nearly 70 per cent of Chinese arms sales were to Pakistan, with Nigeria rising to second place on its client list.

In contrast, South Korea’s top buyers from 2016 to 2020 were Britain, the Philippines and Indonesia.

But the biggest orders for South Korean weapons this year are from Poland, which is buying more than US$10 billion worth of tanks and other equipment, in the Asian country’s largest arms sale ever.

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China unveils new combat drone described as a rival to US Army Grey Eagle

China unveils new combat drone described as a rival to US Army Grey Eagle

Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak attributed the decision to South Korea’s capacity for a quick turnaround. He said the K-2 main battle tank was chosen because South Korea was the only supplier able to provide new weapons fast enough.

Poland had also been considering Abrams and German Leopard tanks from the US.

Manufacturer Hanwha shipped the first batch of 10 K2 tanks and 24 K9 155mm self-propelled howitzers in October. The full order from Poland includes more than 1,600 tanks and howitzers, 288 artillery rocket launchers and nearly 50 fighter jets.

Seoul emerging as global arms force with ‘important’ Poland, Malaysia deals

Chinese military commentator Song Zhongping said South Korea was mainly taking market share from the US, rather than China.

“As the American industrial capacity cannot handle the fast-increasing demand, some urgent contracts go to South Korea, which is able to deliver hi-tech equipment with licensed US technologies much quicker,” he said.

Song said most key subsystems in the Korean weapons were provided or licensed by the US, giving South Korea easy access to many markets that prefered Nato equipment but also making it essentially reliant on US supply chains.

The T-50/FA-50 fighters, for example, featured US engines, radar and armaments, he said.

“So the growth of South Korean arms exports also has an upper limit, which is in the hands of US suppliers,” Song said.

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