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Washington approved a defence bill last month that will set up a military modernisation programme to help Taiwan deter PLA aggression. Photo: EPA-EFE

PLA escalates drills near Taiwan to deter closer US ties, but analysts warn approach could backfire

  • Beijing ramps up combat patrols this month after Washington increases military aid to the island
  • While intimidation campaign aims to send message to Taiwanese public, observers say it could drive support for US-Taiwan defence collaboration
Taiwan

The People’s Liberation Army has ramped up combat patrols around Taiwan to deter Taipei from boosting defence ties with Washington, but observers warned Beijing’s increasing intimidation could cause backlash.

The PLA has sent more than 400 aircraft sorties and 80 vessels to carry out operations near Taiwan since Washington approved increased military aid for the island late last month, according to data released by Taiwan’s defence ministry.
The situation began to escalate on December 25, when 71 aircraft and seven vessels from the PLA’s Eastern Theatre Command, which oversees the Taiwan Strait, kicked off a joint combat operation in the air and waters around Taiwan.

02:04

PLA scrambles record 71 warplanes near Taiwan in response to increased US military aid

PLA scrambles record 71 warplanes near Taiwan in response to increased US military aid
The drill came days after US President Joe Biden signed the 2023 National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA) into law, establishing a defence modernisation programme for Taiwan to deter PLA aggression.

Two weeks later, the PLA sent nearly 60 aircraft sorties and three warships to block three sides of the self-ruled island in a daily combat drill.

Eastern Theatre Command spokesman Shi Yi said the exercises were aimed at responding to the “military collusion” between Washington and Taipei.

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Zhou Chenming, a researcher from the Beijing-based Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank, said Beijing intended to use military deterrence to dissuade Taipei from relying on US military aid.

“It’s the American support of Taiwan that pushed the PLA to turn combat-readiness patrols around the island into regular exercises,” Zhou said.

“Beijing should let the Taiwanese public understand the island is incapable of defending itself as the PLA is determined to smash all military intervention by foreign forces.”

The more Beijing pressures and intimidates Taiwan, the more the Taiwanese people will support closer US-Taiwan military cooperation
Chi Le-yi, military expert

However, others said fierce intimidation would only encourage the Taiwanese public to support military cooperation between Taipei and Washington.

Taipei-based military expert Chi Le-yi said the NDAA and increased transparency about US-Taiwan military cooperation showed that the US had translated its commitment to supporting the island into real action.

“American policy on Taiwan has changed greatly in the past eight years against the white-hot background of strategic confrontations between Washington and Beijing,” Chi said.

“The more Beijing pressures and intimidates Taiwan, the more the Taiwanese people will support closer US-Taiwan military cooperation.”

Taiwan’s armed forces hold two days of routine drills to show combat readiness ahead of Lunar New Year holidays at a military base in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, January 11, 2023. Reuters/Ann Wang

Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province that must be reunified with the mainland.

Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington opposes any attempt to take the island by force.

Washington terminated its mutual defence treaty with Taipei in 1980 after normalising ties with Beijing in 1979, but the US and Taiwan have maintained unofficial military ties via defence fellowship programmes.

While the US military’s ties to the island are an open secret, it has typically kept a low profile when dealing with Taipei. Meanwhile, Taiwanese media have been keen to play up signs of closer military cooperation with Washington.

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Earlier this month, the US Army War College (USAWC) posted a photo on Facebook of a Taiwanese military officer attending a farm fair in Pennsylvania as part of its international fellows programme.

The USAWC did not identify the officer, who was pictured holding his young daughter, but Taiwanese media reported he was an infantry lieutenant colonel.

Taipei has sent senior officers to train at the US military institution since 1991, including Taiwanese Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng.

“This is a very normal part of [the] US-Taiwan unofficial relationship,” said Drew Thompson, a visiting senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, referring to the Facebook post.

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Taiwan air force holds annual drill ahead of Lunar New Year holiday amid rising pressure from PLA

Taiwan air force holds annual drill ahead of Lunar New Year holiday amid rising pressure from PLA

Taiwanese media saw the social media post as a positive sign promoting military exchanges between the US and Taiwan.

Thompson said the island’s media were “proud of the length, depth and strength of the US-Taiwan security relationship, and the success of professional military education exchanges is an example of that”.

In a recent report, the USAWC said 76 senior international officers from 73 countries and regions – including Ukraine, Taiwan and Vietnam – were expected to receive training at its next international fellows programme starting in August.

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While many in Taiwan have attempted to draw parallels between a potential attack by Beijing and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is not clear whether the US has attempted to train Taiwanese troops as it has trained Ukrainian forces since the war broke out last year.

Chi said long-standing tensions and increased intimidation had prompted irreversible dislike of Beijing among ordinary Taiwanese.

He added that most Taiwanese under the age of 35 regarded cross-strait ties as relations between two different countries.

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