Why the high cost of conflict may be the best hope for peace in the Taiwan Strait
- Military and China-US relations experts point to signs that both sides are strengthening their combat readiness
- Any potential war sparked by the escalating Taiwan issue risks involving Washington’s allies in the region, they warned
Beijing has never renounced the use of force to take Taiwan, which it regards as part of its territory and a red line issue. The PLA has vowed to take action to defend Chinese sovereignty and said it would be decisive if the US further pushed the bottom line.
The message was delivered to US officials in bilateral talks between the two nations, and Beijing also warned other countries not to join the US playbook about Taiwan.
But some experts said the Beijing leadership would be careful to manage the ongoing crisis across the Taiwan Strait and would only consider using force as the last option because of the enormous costs.
It will try to de-escalate tensions and alleviate fears among neighbouring countries, making it harder for Washington to rally regional support.
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At the same time, Beijing could continue building up its capacity to make it more costly for the US to intervene, making it more difficult for Taiwan to pursue its pro-independence agenda without US support.
The US military has been trying to work out Beijing’s time frame for a “potential war” over Taiwan, with warnings from US commanding generals about the possibility of armed conflict growing louder.
Minihan, who heads the roughly 110,000-strong US Air Mobility Command, called on air force units to achieve maximum operational battle readiness by that date, in an internal memo that first emerged on social media in late January.
Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state. Washington, however, opposes any attempt to take the island by force and is committed to helping the island defend itself, without categorically saying whether it would actively support Taipei against attack.
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But some experts said the Beijing leadership would be careful to manage the ongoing crisis across the Taiwan Strait and try to de-escalate tensions and alleviate fears among neighbouring countries, because of the enormous costs of using force.
“Beijing believes Washington is likely to abandon its ‘strategic ambiguity’ on Taiwan, replacing it with ‘strategic clarity’,” said Zhou Chenming, a researcher from the Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank in Beijing.
Zhou said an armed conflict would “ruin” almost all of the provinces and cities, such as Guangdong, along its southeast coasts, the country’s economic engines.
“Beijing realises that the Taiwan Strait is also an international key waterway connecting economic development in Japan and South Korea,” he said.
02:17
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In Zhou’s view, the US military has been trying “to sound out Beijing’s time frames for its Taiwan unification plan by deliberately disclosing its assessments on a possible war with the PLA”.
Former PLA instructor Song Zhongping said Beijing would “keep its reunification time frame in the dark, because the Taiwan issue is China’s domestic issue”.
Another assessment was published just a few weeks ago – before Minihan’s memo came to light – by US think tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on January 9, based on simulations of a hypothetical PLA invasion of Taiwan in 2026.
The CSIS concluded, after 24 simulated war games, that any conflict would wreak havoc on both sides of the strait, while the US and Japan would each face tens of thousands of casualties, as well as the loss of dozens of ships, including two aircraft carriers.
PLA forces would also face heavy losses but fail to occupy Taiwan, potentially destabilising political power in Beijing, the CSIS said.
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In October, chief of US naval operations Admiral Michael Gilday said an attack on Taiwan could occur as early as last year, contradicting an assessment in 2021 by the now-retired admiral Philip Davidson.
In his former capacity as head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Davidson nominated 2027 – the centenary of the PLA’s founding – as the year of a new crisis in the Taiwan Strait.
His prediction was based on an interim goal set by President Xi Jinping, who also chairs the all-powerful Central Military Commission, for the PLA to become a fully modern force with a military capacity on a par with the US in the Asia-Pacific region.
In a private visit to Taipei in January, Davidson clarified his remarks in an interview with The Japan Times, saying they referred not to a PLA “invasion” of Taiwan, but to any potential conflict in the area, including assaults on small, outlying islands held by Taipei.
02:23
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Xi set two goals when he launched an unprecedented overhaul of the PLA in 2016 – to complete its modernisation by 2035 and to become a “world-class military” by the 2049 centennial of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.
Last year’s annual report to Congress by the Pentagon on its studies of the PLA’s progress said Xi’s stated goals remained America’s greatest “pacing challenge” for decades to come, particularly around Taiwan.
In its report, the Pentagon called on Washington to build a “more lethal, more mobile, more resilient” military presence in the Indo-Pacific as deterrence.
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A few weeks later, on Christmas Eve, US President Joe Biden signed the annual defence bill that includes the Taiwan Enhanced Resilience Act, legislating more and deeper security cooperation between Washington and Taipei.
The act authorises up to US$10 billion in grants and loans for security assistance over the next five years and encourages Taiwanese forces to take part in US-led multinational naval exercises in 2024.
While the US military probes the possible timing of any planned attack on the island, Beijing believes Washington has been using Taiwan as a card in its hardline China policy since the Donald Trump administration.
02:04
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“The anxiety of a possible war between China and the US was ignited by Donald Trump, while the Biden administration is adding fuel to the fire,” said Zhu Feng, a professor of international affairs at Nanjing University.
“The risk of conflict is increasing as both sides are growing further and further apart.”
The PLA is displaying its high alert readiness, staging at least two large scale joint military exercises around Taiwan between Christmas Day and early January. Dozens of warships and 128 aircraft were deployed, with some planes appearing to block off three sides of the island.
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Observers said the latest exercises, along with Washington’s Taiwan policy and military redeployment plan for the region, showed both sides were strengthening their combat abilities.
But they warned that any conflict would be complicated by the involvement of US regional allies.
The US military’s redeployment plan includes dispersing marines, armed with missiles and lighter gear, throughout Japan’s Okinawa Islands by 2026, as well as gaining access to at least four more bases in the Philippines.
“That means the Americans would not only send troops to land on Taiwan, but also mobilise its regional allies, especially Japan’s Self-Defence Forces (SDF) to take part in the contingency,” said Zhou, from the Beijing military think tank.
03:07
‘US bases on Okinawa inevitable’: perceptions shift in Japan on American military presence
Tokyo referred to Taiwan for the first time in its 2021 defence white paper, emphasising that stability in the Taiwan Strait was crucial to Japan’s security.
Japan has also cited the challenge triggered by China as one reason for accelerating its military normalisation process by upgrading its offensive capability with US help.
Expansion of an SDF base on Yonaguni Island for maritime and air surveillance was completed last year. An early report from Agence France-Presse said a new surface-to-air missile unit armed with an electronic network system had been deployed at Yonaguni, turning it into an air defence missile base.
Cheung Mong, an associate professor at Waseda University’s school of international liberal studies in Japan, said the Yonaguni base would be able to take over minesweeping missions for US warships, “allowing them to safely enter waters in the East China Sea when necessary”.
In addition to lying at the forefront of Okinawa – which is home to more than 30 US military bases – Yonaguni is also Japan’s nearest inhabited island to the Diaoyu Islands, claimed by Beijing but administered by Tokyo as the Senkakus.
Some hawkish retired PLA officers have previously suggested an attack on Okinawa in response to a Taiwan contingency, aimed at paralysing the US-SDF joint use facilities and cutting off the logistics support line with Guam.
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Zhou said firmly that the PLA would not take the initiative against Okinawa, even if Beijing gave orders to gain Taiwan back by force.
“It’s a stupid and nonsense tactic, because attacking Okinawa will immediately activate the US-Japan security treaty, providing Washington and Tokyo with legitimacy to join with other regional allies to target China,” he said.
“The PLA will only make a counter strike against Okinawa once some of the bases on the island open fire on Chinese troops.”
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Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, said Tokyo’s deep concern was caused by its proximity to the Taiwan Strait, a powder keg that could be triggered by Beijing and Washington.
“Almost all the Japanese populations are anxious about the stability of Taiwan Strait, because they believe the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea have a bearing on Japan’s national security and territorial sovereignty,” Shi said.
Observers said they expected China would move to establish a high-level military dialogue mechanism with Japan and South Korea for better communications between their air defence identification zones in the East China Sea.
The system would be similar to the China-India military communication channel which involves everyone from central commanders to frontline officers to manage border disputes.
06:24
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An insider familiar with military diplomacy said Beijing would approach Washington’s key regional allies one by one, in a repeat of its strategy when dealing with rival claimants in the South China Sea territorial disputes.
“Unlike the US, China prefers mutual dialogues rather than multinational talks, as it’s hard to push all countries to compromise based on one issue,” said the insider, who asked not to be named because of the issue’s sensitivity.
“For example, Japan and the Philippines would have different appeals when dealing with China.”
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Shi said he was pessimistic about the future of the Taiwan issue, with no sign that China or the US was prepared to compromise.
“Worse, the risk of a conflict is not just [that it could] be caused by frontline confrontations between the two militaries, [it could] also be driven by provocative policies made by the top decision makers,” he said.
Ni Lexiong, a professor in the political science department at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said a lack of communication and understanding between the two superpowers could escalate from “silent treatment” into “a real fight”.
“The damage has been done. It’s irreversible to resume a relationship once both sides are all accused of being hurt by each other deeply,” Ni said.
