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Taiwan
ChinaMilitary

Why the high cost of conflict may be the best hope for peace in the Taiwan Strait

  • Military and China-US relations experts point to signs that both sides are strengthening their combat readiness
  • Any potential war sparked by the escalating Taiwan issue risks involving Washington’s allies in the region, they warned

Reading Time:7 minutes
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Illustration: Henry Wong
Minnie Chan
While some defence and China-US relations experts believe the costs of using force to bring Taiwan under mainland control would make it a last resort, they warn that war is a possibility if Washington pushes too hard against Beijing’s bottom line.
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The risk of military conflict between mainland and US forces has been escalating, with high-ranking official visits to Taipei from Washington and an increase in People’s Liberation Army drills around the island.

Beijing has never renounced the use of force to take Taiwan, which it regards as part of its territory and a red line issue. The PLA has vowed to take action to defend Chinese sovereignty and said it would be decisive if the US further pushed the bottom line.

The message was delivered to US officials in bilateral talks between the two nations, and Beijing also warned other countries not to join the US playbook about Taiwan.

But some experts said the Beijing leadership would be careful to manage the ongoing crisis across the Taiwan Strait and would only consider using force as the last option because of the enormous costs.

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It will try to de-escalate tensions and alleviate fears among neighbouring countries, making it harder for Washington to rally regional support.

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