Ukraine war, 1 year on: what lessons has China’s military learned?
- Observers say the conflict is a ‘golden opportunity’ to study modern warfare, particularly in the context of any Taiwan Strait action
- The unpredictability of war poses the formidable question for Beijing of how to win swiftly and decisively, they say
The general consensus was that Russian troops would roll over Ukraine’s defences within months and return to their barracks before the year’s end, if not in the summer.
But the fierce resistance of the Ukrainian army and people, a stronger-than-expected alliance among Western forces, and the charismatic leadership of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky surprised the world and denied Putin his desperately needed speedy victory.
The Ukraine-Russia war has provided a golden opportunity for Beijing’s top brass to learn the lessons of modern warfare, particularly in the context of any planned attack on Taiwan, the self-ruled island of 23 million, which Beijing has vowed to bring under mainland control, by force if necessary.
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Canada-based Kanwa Defence Review magazine editor-in-chief Andrei Chang, who visited the Ukrainian capital Kyiv in September, said the development of the Ukraine conflict “showed us that war is unpredictable [and] so is the People’s Liberation Army’s possible fight in the Taiwan Strait”.
Analysts said the unpredictability of conflict posed a formidable question to Beijing – how to win a war swiftly and decisively, especially as Xi has made it clear many times that he expects the PLA to prepare itself to fight any wars and win.
Zhou Chenming, a researcher at the Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank in Beijing, said Chinese commanders were studying satellite images and analysing intelligence collected from the Ukraine conflict “every day”.
“It is unprecedented to see the deployment of so much advanced equipment, like unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and hypersonic missiles in a real battlefield,” Zhou said.
There is an extra layer of significance for the PLA, in the common Soviet roots shared by China’s forces and the militaries of Russia and Ukraine. Soviet-designed weapons systems remained the backbone of the two warring forces, he said.
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According to the 2023 Global Firepower index, the Russian military remains the world’s second strongest after the US’ in terms of available firepower. China’s armed forces are ranked third.
“Russia has the advantage of much stronger firepower than Ukraine, but the latter’s operational command appears to be more advanced and effective, especially since it now has support from the US and Nato,” Zhou said.
A key strategy for both sides in the war has been the tactical use of UAVs and drones, an aspect of the fighting that will be of particular interest to the PLA.
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“The Ukraine military is supported by Bayraktar TB2 combat vehicles but they are mainly used for strikes and not for reconnaissance purposes,” Zhou said, adding that the Russian side had deployed its drones for reconnaissance and targeting.
“In the eyes of the PLA, drones used by Russia and Ukraine are not that advanced and most are built for civilian use, but they have all achieved effective results.
“The Ukraine-Russia war offers a glimpse of how manned and unmanned military technologies should be integrated in modern intellectual warfare.
“These lessons will enlighten the PLA in future training and [reform] of its operation systems,” he said.
“For example, as drones become a standard configuration [of the army] on the battlefield, every [ground force] combat unit will have a new post – the drone operator.”
Another change that has caught the eye of military observers is Russia’s efforts to minimise casualties by returning to a reliance on large combat units with heavy armaments and artillery power.
Moscow announced in December that it planned to increase the size of its forces to 1.5 million, with recruitment for an extra 500,000 under way. After a series of defeats, Putin has also pledged to build a deeper arsenal with upgraded equipment.
“As part of its military modernisation programme, and based on learning from the US, the Russian military established battalion tactical groups (BTG) – combat forces that are more nimble and potent – to replace the division units,” Macau-based military observer Antony Wong Tong said.
“However, the BTGs have failed to play [to their] strength in the Ukraine-Russia war due to a lack of logistic support and [failures in] the command system, resulting in heavy losses of the armoured artillery units.”
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The BTGs, with their priorities of speedy mobilisation and deployment, were modelled on similar formations used by the US military for its anti-terrorism operations. They were adopted after Russia’s military commanders realised their weaknesses in their 2008 invasion of Georgia and annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Zhou, from the Beijing think tank, also noted that Moscow had re-established the much bigger armoured artillery divisions, after the BTG model proved costly.
“Real combat experiences [by the Russian military] in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war showed these nimble units were unable to defeat well-trained and organised regular armies … because they lack firepower and heavy weapons, especially now Ukraine has support from Nato,” Zhou said.
“The [Russian military’s] re-establishment of the armoured artillery division should serve as a reminder to the PLA that the landscape of modern warfare has changed.
“This is another takeaway [for the Chinese side] which has begun to speed up modernisation of its military with inspirations it learned from the [1991] Gulf war.”
While UAVs and drones have given the soldiers on the ground eyes in the sky, long-range and hypersonic missiles provide the ability to launch high-precision strikes from a distance, minimising losses.
Wong, the Macau-based observer, noted that the Ukraine-Russia conflict is the first to see hypersonic missiles deployed extensively, with impressive results – a view shared by Zhou in Beijing.
“Russia’s use of hypersonic missiles in the Ukraine-Russia war shows that these missiles can effectively penetrate air-defence systems and destroy targets like power stations and telecommunications infrastructure in Ukraine,” Zhou said.
“One of the goals of targeting power stations and telecommunications infrastructure is about disabling Ukraine’s internet connection with the outside world, and it is part of [Russia’s] modern information warfare tactics.”
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The PLA is a pioneer in hypersonic missiles, with a fast-growing arsenal that includes road-mobile DF-17 ballistic missiles and YJ-21 anti-ship missiles. However, none have been deployed in combat and the war in Ukraine has given the PLA valuable references about the use of such advanced weaponry, according to Zhou.
Canada-based defence journalist Chang said effective integration would be crucial if advanced weapons were to be game changers in modern warfare. He blamed Russia’s setbacks on its logistical support failures.
But he also questioned whether Ukraine could make good use of Western military aid in the form of advanced heavy battle tanks, aircraft and defensive missiles.
“Advanced weapons from the West, especially the aircraft, need comprehensive logistic support and costly maintenance. It might be better for Ukraine to better use their Soviet-designed equipment and improve them with Western technologies and upgrades,” he said.
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Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at Taiwan’s Naval Academy in Kaohsiung, said the use of high-precision, long-range missiles had enabled the Russian army to hit far away targets without suffering heavy losses on the ground.
“As the invader, the Russian military understands that it will face resistance such as snipers … and it will suffer heavy losses in fighting urban warfare,” Lu said.
Lu said the use of advanced missile attacks targeting civilian buildings could also be seen as part of “a war of annihilation”.
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“The indiscriminate missile attacks were meant to weaken the fighting spirit and morale of the Ukrainian military and civilians,” he said, while forecasting similar destruction in any Taiwan Strait conflict.
“Once the PLA launches missile attacks against Taiwan, escalation is inevitable. It is generally believed that Beijing would want to wrap up [the war] within maybe two weeks,” Lu said.
“If that fails, both sides will face catastrophic consequences similar to what has happened in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war.”
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Russia’s war in Ukraine has also shown that winning the “cognitive war” can be just as important as military might, suggesting Beijing and the PLA may face more challenges than missiles and tanks in any military action against Taiwan.
“Russia has learned the hard way about cognitive warfare. One of the key reasons Ukraine has won wide international support was … Zelensky’s humbleness and outstanding communication and storytelling skill,” Lu said.
“In terms of cognitive warfare, Beijing needs to understand that it not only needs to deal with the Taiwanese people if it decides to take military action but also people of all countries in the region.”
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Wong said Beijing might also risk making the same mistakes as Russia in any attack on Taiwan, or in any other conflict.
“To appease Putin, Russia’s Federal Security Service has fed him with favourable intelligence and that was responsible for some of its defeats in this war … all this can also happen to Chinese leaders if the PLA goes to war over Taiwan or elsewhere,” he said.
For Ni Lexiong, a professor at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, the biggest lesson for Beijing comes back to the unpredictable nature of war.
While it was common knowledge that Beijing would want a swift battle followed by victory if there was war over Taiwan, the Ukraine-Russia war should serve as a warning that predictability can be the first casualty of any military conflict, Ni said.
“History has taught us that war is an untouchable demon. The ongoing Ukraine-Russia war should serve as a reminder for those who are in power that they should think twice before they decide to make that move.”
