China’s ‘two sessions’ 2023: will world tensions win PLA budget boost?

Beijing must balance ambitions with post-Covid economic recovery, but global challenges make pressing case for spending, experts said

Most analysts are predicting a steady increase of 7-8 per cent in defence spending when the finance report is tabled on Sunday

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Published: 10:30pm, 3 Mar 2023Updated: 3:55pm, 5 Mar 2023

This year’s “two sessions” – the annual meetings of the legislature and political advisory body – begin on March 4 and will complete a twice-a-decade leadership transition, with a reshuffle of top government jobs including the premier, and Xi Jinping set to secure a third term as president. As part of a series on what to expect from this key event, Minnie Chan looks at what is in store for the military.

China’s defence budget for the coming year is expected to show moderate growth when it is unveiled on Sunday at the annual meeting of the top legislature, the National People’s Congress.

Analysts are predicting a steady increase of 7-8 per cent, in the face of pressures from the war in Ukraine and rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, when the government finance report, which includes the defence budget, is tabled.

Experts said the People’s Liberation Army needed the stable rise to keep pace with Beijing’s long-term goal of “reunifying Taiwan, by force if necessary”, and ultimately becoming a first-class military on a par with its US counterpart by the middle of the century.

China’s spending rates on defence usually outpace its GDP growth targets. At last year’s two sessions, the NPC announced a rise of 7.1 per cent year on year for defence, compared to its GDP growth target of 5.5 per cent.

Experts noted that the prolonged conflict in Ukraine had dragged the world to the brink of war, with more countries increasing their military spending. However, they expected China’s gloomy post-Covid economic prospects to restrain the PLA’s desire for a high rate of growth.

Zhou Chenming, a researcher with the Beijing-based Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank, said the complexities of the global geopolitical landscape had sparked vigorous debates in China.