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Chinese arms exports fell 23 per cent over the past 10 years, according to new data. Photo: Reuters

Is a fall in China’s military exports a sign of stockpiling at home?

  • Chinese arms sales fell by nearly a quarter in 2018-2022, according to new report
  • Geopolitical tensions, Covid-19 disruptions were main factors in the decline, analysts say

A drop in China’s arms exports could signal military stockpiling in the country amid surging geopolitical tensions and disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to analysts.

New figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) compared China’s arms exports over the two most recent five-year periods. The data showed arms exports from 2018-2022 dropped by 23 per cent compared with 2013-2017.

China’s overall share of global arms exports slipped from 6.3 per cent to 5.2 per cent during the same period, the think tank said in its report.

Still, in 2018-2022, China surpassed Germany to become the world’s fourth biggest exporter of major arms, following the United States, Russia and France.

The decline in arms exports from China could be a sign that Beijing was focusing more on domestic needs as geopolitical tensions rose, said Ni Lexiong, a professor at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.

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“The [geopolitical] environment around mainland China is deteriorating, including the Taiwan issue, the border issue with India and, more recently, Sino-Japanese relations,” Ni said. “China has to be ready for confrontations at all times.”
China has joined a growing list of nations that have increased defence budgets, with a 7.2 per cent rise in its military expenditure – the fastest pace in four years – to about 1.55 trillion yuan (US$224.3 billion) for 2023.

Meanwhile, China’s military imports increased by 4.1 per cent in the 2018 to 2022 period compared with the previous five years, the report said. Russia remained the dominant supplier, accounting for 83 per cent of all Chinese imports. France and Ukraine were in second and third places respectively.

The report came as Beijing tackles tensions on multiple fronts, especially Taiwan.

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Beijing regards Taiwan as a breakaway province that must be reunified with the mainland – by force if necessary. Few countries recognise the island as an independent state, including the US, however Washington has pledged to support Taipei’s military defence, something Beijing opposes.

“The current environment is indeed not peaceful,” said Song Zhongping, a former instructor for the People’s Liberation Army. “Therefore, it is very necessary for [China] to strengthen its military reserves, to prepare for war.”

In addition to the country’s growing needs for its own military resources, analysts said China was particularly affected by Covid-induced global disruptions to military industrial production.

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“During the pandemic, the transport of raw materials and manufactured goods for military products may be suspended, [because of] the shortage of manpower,” Ni said.

China’s Covid-19 policy may have also stalled military factory output because of constant production shutdowns, he added.

The volume of Chinese military sales orders would resume as the pandemic subsided, according to Song.

Pakistan bought more than half of China’s military exports from 2018-2022, accounting for 54 per cent. Bangladesh and Serbia followed with 12 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively.

At the International Defence Exhibition in Abu Dhabi earlier this month, China was one of the biggest exhibitors with more than 500 pieces of equipment, including a new military micro drone called the Fengniao, or Hummingbird, an aircraft intended to rival its US counterpart.
“China’s foreign arms market will continue to expand, and many Middle Eastern countries are more interested in Chinese weaponry,” Song said.

Like China, Russia’s arms exports decreased sharply – falling 31 per cent in the 2018 -2022 period. However, China’s imports from Russia rose 39 per cent in the same period.

But according to SIPRI, the volume of imports to China from 2020 to 2022 dropped dramatically compared with the 2018 to 2020 period, and the order volume was expected to keep dropping. China was becoming less reliant on Russian imports as it ramped up domestic production of advanced major arms, it said.

“The war in Ukraine has exposed the weaknesses of Russia’s military armament, which may have partly caused China’s reduced military imports from Russia over the last two years,” Ni said.

“Chinese military manufacturing, on the other hand, is considered to be inherited from the Soviet tradition, so it is possible that its market reputation will also be hit.”

Meanwhile, China bought nearly half of Ukraine’s military exports – 48 per cent – from 2018 to 2022, despite a 70 per cent decrease in Ukraine’s arms exports compared with the previous period. Among the purchases were gas turbines and engines for navy destroyers and trainer and combat aircraft.

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