What mainland China’s latest Taiwan drills tell us about its military capabilities

Recent exercises show the PLA’s increasing ability to seal off the island or put pressure on its people and leadership, analysts say
The use of carrier-based jets to approach Taiwan’s less protected southeastern coast was seen as one of the most significant aspects to the drill

Taiwan

Kristin Huang

Published: 8:00pm, 15 Apr 2023

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The People’s Liberation Army’s latest drills around Taiwan reflect the ways it has honed its ability to seal off the island or use gray zone tactics to put pressure on its leadership, military analysts have said.

Although the drills did not involve real missiles – unlike a major exercise carried out last year – the rocket force confirmed that it had carried out simulated attacks against moving targets at sea, a possible test for targeting aircraft carriers.

During the three-day exercise , the Chinese military dispatched 232 warplanes and 32 naval vessels, including the H-6K strategic bomber and the Shandong aircraft carrier, according to Chinese media reports.

Besides military force, the Chinese government also dispatched Haixun 06, a law enforcement vessel, on patrol.

For the first time, four J-15 fighter jets, believed to have been launched from the Shandong, were seen off Taiwan’s less-fortified southeast coast.

The Eastern Theatre Command also simulated precision missile attacks from land, sea, air and underwater, according to video footage released by the theatre command.

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These exercises came in the wake of the meeting between Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy during Tsai’s stopover in the US, which China regarded as a breach of its sovereignty.

Mainland China and Taiwan split in 1949 at the end of a civil war when the Nationalists were defeated by the Communists and fled to Taiwan, where they set up an interim government. Beijing sees the island as part of China and has never ruled out the use of force to take control of it.

Raymond Kuo, a specialist on East Asian security at the Rand Corporation, a US think tank, said: “The most notable advancement in Chinese military capabilities was that four J-15 fighters that took off from and landed back on the Shandong aircraft carrier.

“This is the first time the J-15 has intruded upon Taiwan’s ADIZ [air defence identification zone] , and it validates the progress Beijing has made in conducting carrier-based military operations.

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Kuo added that the deployment of the Shandong aircraft carrier “demonstrates that the [PLA Navy] can conduct coordinated, carrier-based operations, a critical element of force projection,” said Kuo.

The deployment of Haixun 06 is also notable, according to Kuo, who noted that the ship is not part of the Chinese military.

“This advances Chinese gray zone coercion of Taiwan, the use of administrative or civilian forces to pressure Taipei and other countries into acquiescing to Beijing’s policy,” he added.

Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, also pointed to the importance of the carrier deployment.

“China’s media emphasised the importance of envelopment and ‘sealing’ Taiwan, and aircraft carriers give the PLA the ability to launch multi-axis attacks rather than simply from the Chinese mainland. That complicates Taiwan’s air defence challenge, as well as its ability to operate naval forces in support of coastal defence operations.”

Customers at a Beijing restaurant dine near a giant screen broadcasting news footage of an aircraft taking off from the Shandong aircraft carrier. Photo: Reuters

Chinese state media said the navy continued “actual combat training” around Taiwan on Tuesday, a day after the three-day exercises finished.

Kuo and Davis both believed the US and Japan would be looking at ways to respond to the latest drills.

“Washington and Tokyo are coordinating on regional security, and it would be helpful if they jointly increased their security planning with Taipei. But of course, that’s unlikely to occur for political reasons … But the US, Japan and Taiwan could develop a broader array of responses to Chinese gray zone coercion,” said Kuo.

Davis said: “Obviously the US and Japan – and others – will be watching what China does during these exercises, and what types of weapons were used, and how effective they might be.

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“I think the US and its allies are already thinking about how to counter Chinese anti-access and area denial capabilities, or deter China from using military force against Taiwan, be it in a blockade, or in an actual Chinese invasion of Taiwan.”

But Sean McFate, a professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School in the US, said China is far from being able to take the island.

“China’s military is not ready to take Taiwan, which is why Xi Jinping ordered the military to be ready to take Taiwan by 2027, if told to do so, ” he said.