Explainer | What mainland China’s spy drone flights around Taiwan could mean for cross-strait conflict

Analysts say Beijing’s long-range UAVs could play crucial role in surveillance, blockades, strikes and assassinations
TB-001 drone’s loop around the island is ‘key step’ in mainland China’s preparations to achieve reunification, says military expert

Taiwan

Amber Wangin Beijing

Published: 7:11pm, 5 May 2023

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Taiwan reported on Wednesday it had detected People’s Liberation Army (PLA) drones circling the island. It was the second time in a week Beijing was spotted carrying out such a manoeuvre in what is believed to be a new tactic to collect intelligence and test the PLA’s capabilities for possible military action against the island.

According to military analysts, Beijing’s long-range reconnaissance drones – especially one capable of carrying heavy weapons – could play a crucial role in surveillance, blockades, strikes and assassinations.

Both Taiwan and mainland China are developing and investing in drones as they watch for lessons from Ukraine, where unmanned aircraft have played a key role in the war.

What happened?

Taipei first reported PLA drones circling the island last week.

A flight path map released on April 28 by Taiwan’s defence ministry showed a TB-001 long-endurance strike and reconnaissance drone had circled the island, while a BZK-005 long-range reconnaissance drone made a half-loop before heading back towards mainland China.

On May 3, Taipei reported that a BZK-005 had looped around the eastern side of the island, flying clockwise from north to south.

What can these drones do?

The TB-001, nicknamed the “Twin-Tailed Scorpion”, is reported to have a range of around 6,000km (3,728 miles) and an endurance of 35 hours. It can also carry bombs and missiles.

The BZK-005 has an endurance of 40 hours and can fly up to 8,000 metres above ground.

They are among the leading combat drones Beijing has developed, which also include the Rainbow and Wing Loong series widely used for surveillance, reconnaissance and strike missions.

China is the largest manufacturer of commercial drones and the leading exporter of combat drones.

In 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered the country to speed up combat training and study of drones as drone warfare was “deeply changing the nature of war”.

Taiwan detects PLA combat drones circling island ‘for the first time’

How often are drones spotted near Taiwan?

While the recent “encirclement” manoeuvres were the first of their kind, the PLA flies unmanned aerial vehicles around Taiwan on an almost daily basis.

In April, WZ-7 high-altitude long-endurance reconnaissance drones and a CH-4 unmanned aerial vehicle were also spotted entering Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ), but they only flew short paths to the west of the island.

In total, at least five types of PLA drones have been detected entering Taiwan’s ADIZ in recent years.

Last July, Japan’s defence ministry spotted a TB-001 flying in airspace to the east of the island.

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What have these flights achieved?

Fu Qianshao, a retired PLA Air Force equipment specialist, said the loop flown by the TB-001 was “a key step” in the PLA’s preparations to achieve reunification with the island through military means.

The drone can be used for intelligence gathering and precise strikes, especially against targets in eastern Taiwan, which had been regarded as a safe zone for the island’s armed forces.

He said the quality of surveillance achieved by the TB-001’s “regular patrols” in the eastern part of the island was almost equal to that of low Earth orbit satellites, with the advantage of being able to spy on targets at any time, unlike satellites.

Fu said the TB-001 drones could overcome many of the challenges of surveillance in eastern Taiwan thanks to their endurance, low cost and low risk of casualties compared with fighters and surveillance aircraft.

PLA spy drone circles Taiwan again as Beijing tests new tactics

A January article published in the Chinese military magazine Ordnance Industry Science Technology highlighted the vital role drones would play in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait.

It said drones could be used for “decapitation” – a military term that refers to taking out a group’s leader. They could also be used to target Taiwan’s mobile missile launchers and heavy weaponry.

Fu said large drones could be deployed to circle the island in the future regularly, ignoring warnings from Taiwanese forces and conducting real-time surveillance on targets in the eastern part of the island.

What is Taiwan doing about the drones?

Taiwan’s defence ministry said its armed forces had monitored the situation and tasked combat air patrol planes, navy vessels and land-based missile systems with responding to Beijing’s activities.

Taiwan’s defence minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said on May 4 that any aerial vehicle, whether manned or unmanned, that crosses “a certain line” would face “self-defence countermeasures” from the island’s armed forces.

Taiwan’s premier says shooting down drone near mainland was ‘appropriate’

Taiwan’s measured response came in contrast to its reaction to incursions by an unidentified civilian drone that entered its airspace in September. That drone was the first one from mainland China to be shot down by the island’s military.

Taipei’s restraint towards the PLA’s drone flights could also be the result of its inability to respond in kind – and the island may be eyeing how to change that.

Some 30 US defence contractors, including giants Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, kicked off a weeklong visit to Taipei on Wednesday. Taiwan is reportedly seeking to work with the US defence industry on cutting-edge drones.