‘Unreported’ US-China military encounters cloud risk assessment: analyst
- Incidents set to continue amid lack of direct communication, China’s ambitions and US reluctance to pull back, observers say
- PLA pilots are becoming ‘more proficient’ but operator error still a danger, they say
Increasingly frequent encounters between the Chinese and US warships and military aircraft are difficult to analyse because some of them are not reported, a US military analyst said on Wednesday.
“Part of the challenge of talking about [US-China military incidents] is that a lot of encounters go unreported,” Josiah Case, a research analyst at the Centre for Naval Analyses, said at an event held on Wednesday by the Brookings Institute, a Washington think tank.
“That’s why it’s hard to say that there is a clear trend line other than what we’ve been told by [Pentagon] officials in public.
“I think part of why what we’re seeing today is so worrying is that these are happening in a vacuum.”
01:46
Chinese fighter jet almost collides with US military plane over South China Sea
Encounters between patrolling Chinese and American vessels and aircraft have become increasingly dangerous, US officials have said, because of a lack of high-level communication between the two militaries. Beijing cut several communication channels after former US House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last August.
In early June, a Chinese warship came within 137 metres (150 yards) of a US destroyer in the Taiwan Strait and forced it to slow down, which followed claims by the Pentagon in May that a Chinese fighter jet conducted an “unnecessarily aggressive manoeuvre” during an intercept of a US spy plane in international airspace over the South China Sea.
Beijing has pushed back against the allegations by characterising US military operations in the South China Sea area as provocations.
Mao Ning, spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry, said after the fighter jet incident that “such provocative and dangerous actions are the root cause of maritime security issues”.
These developments meant Beijing was unlikely to restore formal communications with the US military, Roderick Lee, director of research at China Aerospace Studies Institute, a unit of the US Air Force’s Air University, said during the discussion at Brookings.
Lee suggested that Beijing had drawn its own conclusions about US intentions based on the regular air and sea patrols through the region, and therefore saw little value in direct talks.
“What you’re saying on the phone is probably the least weighted in terms of value … so I don’t think they had any intent to improve formal communication, because I think they think it’s already really good,” he said.
“They probably think we’re really good at communicating through these non-verbal cues.
“Whether we are or not is another issue. I think that’s where the danger is.”
02:53
Philippines rebukes Beijing for 'dangerous manoeuvres' in South China Sea
The frequent encounters were likely to continue given PLA’s military ambitions and the US’ reluctance to pull back their activities in the Pacific region, observers said.
“If we were to pull back our operations … or close-in reconnaissance, if we were to pull these back in an attempt to send goodwill, I do think Beijing would see that as a weakness,” Case said.
However, while both analysts underscored the risks caused by the lack of military-to-military talks amid increasing operations near mainland China, they also noted a higher level of professionalism exhibited by PLA pilots.
Lee used the 2001 collision of a US EP-3 spy plane and a Chinese fighter jet near Hainan Island as a comparison. The pilot of the PLA J-8 jet died in the incident.
According to Lee, the PLA “has pilots that are more proficient, and that will result in them now being directed in a mature way to try to get the US to stop or at least show displeasure to US reconnaissance operations”.
Case agreed.
“The PLA is becoming a more professional military and so but that does not mean that operator error isn’t entirely gone,” he said.
