China will have over 1,000 nuclear weapons by 2030, exceeding US predictions, Pentagon report on PLA expansion says
- China ‘will continue to rapidly modernise, diversify and expand its nuclear forces’, US Department of Defence report released on Thursday says
- Report suggests PLA has speeded up its building of sea-based nuclear platforms, including expanding Yalong Bay submarine base from four to six piers
According to a US Department of Defence report titled “2023 Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” released on Thursday, Beijing is “on track to exceed previous projections” in boosting its nuclear capabilities.
The report said China was likely to have more than 500 operational nuclear warheads, with the number expected to exceed 1,000 by 2030, adding it has been expanding its quantity of “land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms” in the past decade by investing in infrastructure to support its nuclear forces.
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“Over the next decade, [China] will continue to rapidly modernise, diversify and expand its nuclear forces,” the report said. “Compared to the PLA’s nuclear modernisation efforts a decade ago, current efforts dwarf previous attempts in both scale and complexity.”
“China’s nuclear build-up is aimed to give it credible options to escalate a conflict and thereby deter US intervention in conflicts between China and its neighbours, the most concerning which would be an invasion of Taiwan,” said John Bradford, executive director of the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies.
Zhou Chenming, a researcher with the Beijing-based Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank, said the Pentagon’s estimation of 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030 could be seen as a “normal growth rate” reflecting China’s nuclear development progress.
“China has gradually eliminated those expired nuclear warheads and appropriately increased necessary new ones to enhance its nuclear deterrence capability, which is also meeting the country’s international standing,” Zhou said. He said Beijing would not follow Moscow in building thousands of nuclear warheads to counter US nuclear stockpiles.
The US is estimated to have a stockpile of around 3,708 warheads, but only about 1,770 are operational, and a further 1,938 are held in reserve, according to a report by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in January.
Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at the Taiwanese naval academy in Kaohsiung, said the Pentagon report had listed the PLA’s DF-17 hypersonic ballistic missile system as joint capabilities for counter-intervention in the region for the first time.
The DF-17 is a medium-range ballistic missile system that was not supposed to be deployed at the front line in the event of a Taiwan contingency, but the report said the hypersonic weapon “is possibly intended to replace some older SRBM [short-range ballistic missile] units and is intended to strike foreign military bases and fleets in the Western Pacific.
Lu said the PLA’s recent military drills around Taiwan told the Pentagon the mainland had moved almost all its valuable missile assets inland after Washington promised Taipei a new arms sale, including the long-range precision strike High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and the powerful MQ-9 Reaper drone.
“That means the PLA needs to deploy longer-range missile systems to its anti-access and area-denial operation,” Lu said.
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The Pentagon report also suggested the PLA had accelerated its building of sea-based nuclear platforms. Satellite imagery of the southernmost Yalong Bay submarine base in Hainan province indicates it expanded from four piers in July last year to six in May.
While Beijing is in the development phase of the next-generation Type 096 SSBN (nuclear ballistic missile submarine), which are expected to enter service in the late 2020s or early 2030s, the Chinese navy also continued adding new Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs equipped with up to 12 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), such as the JL-3 capable of targeting the continental US from its coastal waters, enhancing its sea-based deterrence.
Since the Type 094 nuclear submarine is capable of launching the powerful JL-3 SLBMs, Zhou said Beijing so far did not need to develop the next-generation Type 096 nuclear submarines.
The report said China would concurrently operate its six operational Jin-class submarines with the future Type 096 based on the Chinese submarines’ more than 30 years of service life.
The Pentagon estimated that the expanded nuclear force would be deployed at higher readiness levels and “basically complete” the PLA modernisation process by 2035, serving as “an important milestone on the road to Xi’s goal of a ‘world class’ military by 2049”.
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“The goal is to acquire the status of ‘the world’s second best’ in terms of military power in line with its economic power [after the US],” said Kang Jun-young, a professor of Chinese Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul.
Kang, however, said China’s nuclear build-up could trigger an arms race and escalate tensions in the Asia-Pacific, driving Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and the US to revamp their deterrence capabilities in response to a PLA threat.
Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Washington-based think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies, echoed the view and said Chinese strategists might also believe that a greater number and diversity of nuclear forces would give Beijing more flexibility in a conventional conflict, such as a war over Taiwan.
“In this sense, Beijing may feel more secure in using conventional force against Taiwan and the United States if it has a more robust nuclear deterrent,” Hart said.
“A key issue for a Taiwan conflict is not just the size of China’s nuclear forces, but any shifts in China’s nuclear posture and doctrine. There are signs that China is shifting toward a more offensive posture, which may mean that Beijing is more comfortable with threatening the use of nuclear weapons in a Taiwan conflict.”
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Hart added that while conventional armed attack submarines would pose a bigger threat to Taiwanese forces, SSBNs could be used to signal nuclear capabilities and demonstrate nuclear deterrence against the US in the event of a war over Taiwan.
“Advances in the PLA’s SLBM capabilities are an important development in terms of developing the sea-based leg of China’s nuclear deterrent,” Hart said.
“The fielding of the JL-3 SLBM means that China now has capabilities to target the continental United States from near its own shores, rather than having to sail far out into the Pacific Ocean.”
Raymond Kuo, director of the Taiwan Policy Initiative and a senior political scientist at the US-based think tank Rand Corporation, said while a nuclear attack and the use of SSBNs by Beijing would be unlikely in a war over Taiwan, its nuclear capabilities would complicate US efforts to support the island.
“The build-up will complicate US plans to assist Taiwan and its other regional partners and allies. Nuclear weapons could possibly be used against incoming naval forces,” Kuo said.
He added that “greater Chinese ability to strike its adversaries means that Washington has to be more cautious in its military operations and planning”.
