Not an ‘Asian Nato’: Aukus still work-in-progress but expansion could complicate China’s regional plans, analysts say

Buildout of Indo-Pacific cooperation pact could leave China more isolated facing more complex network of potential adversaries

But it is premature to add more member states to ‘new group’ that has barely started, analyst says

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The Aukus defence partnership between the US, Australia and the UK is exploring how Japan could join the pact, US President Joe Biden said during a press conference with his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida. Photo: Reuters

Published: 12:00pm, 14 Apr 2024Updated: 5:35pm, 14 Apr 2024

The potential expansion of Aukus may increase defence pressure on China as it faces ever more cutting-edge defence technology, including hypersonic weapons, but Beijing could expect little in the way of substantive changes in power dynamics in the near term.

On Wednesday, as he met Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House, US President Joe Biden said Aukus was “exploring” ways to cooperate with Japan in hi-tech defence capabilities, while the two countries would continue to “respond to challenges concerning China through close coordination”.

“Our Aukus defence partnership with Australia and the United Kingdom is exploring how Japan can join our work in the second pillar, which focuses on advanced capabilities, including AI, autonomous systems,” Biden said during a joint press conference with Kishida on Wednesday.

Launched in 2021, the Aukus pact has two key pillars: Pillar I is to support Australia’s acquisition of conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarines; Pillar II focuses on cutting-edge technologies, including quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and hypersonics.

The possible expansion of other member states into the defence partnership was sparked after Aukus defence chiefs issued a joint statement on Monday, stating the three countries were considering cooperation with Japan on the second pillar.

“Aukus partners have developed principles and models for additional partner engagement in individual Pillar II projects and will undertake consultations in 2024 with prospective partners regarding areas where they can contribute to, and benefit from, this historic work,” the defence ministers said in the statement.

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