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Taiwan more likely to face blockade or economic warfare from Beijing than invasion: panel
Still, witnesses testifying before influential US House committee urge America to prepare for all scenarios
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Bochen Hanin Washington
Beijing is more likely to carry out a blockade or economic warfare against Taiwan rather than an invasion, witnesses and lawmakers said at a congressional hearing on Thursday, even as they urged the US to prepare for all scenarios.
“The most likely scenario is they’re going to try this cyber-enabled economic warfare campaign,” said Mark Montgomery, a retired US rear admiral and senior director at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, testifying before the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party.
“Beijing will want to force Taiwan’s capitulation through less drastic methods” than a military takeover, he added.
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As for what such a campaign would entail, Montgomery believed it would target Taiwan’s financial, energy and telecommunications sectors, and involve “malicious” cyber activity.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to arming it.
In recent years, the US has grown increasingly anxious about a mainland takeover, with officials and lawmakers eyeing 2027 as a possible window, and pointing to more frequent People’s Liberation Army sorties crossing the Taiwan Strait’s median line as signs of growing aggression.
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