How long would Taiwan’s energy supplies last under a PLA blockade?
A US think tank war-gamed dozens of scenarios, suggesting some options and pitfalls for all sides
The report from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) also said that its coal supplies would be depleted in seven weeks and its oil reserves in 20 weeks.
The authors of the report, which was released on Thursday, analysed 26 war-gaming scenarios to understand Taiwan’s military challenges in countering a blockade from Beijing.
They concluded that a blockade would not be a “low-cost, low-risk” option for Beijing because casualties would be high across all potential scenarios and there was a high chance of a blockade spiralling into a wider conflict.
In two of the “maximum escalation” scenarios, the United States would become involved and its missiles would strike mainland China. In those scenarios, Chinese missiles would also strike Guam and Japan, it said.
“[A] blockade was likewise not a good precursor to invasion because the aggressive action put other countries on alert and, in some cases, resulted in the loss of Chinese assets that would be needed in the event of invasion,” the report said.