Advertisement
How 1,000 Chinese J-20s could challenge US dominance in the Indo-Pacific
Report finds ‘dramatic increase’ over past five years in Beijing’s capacity to contest Western air power, citing ‘highly capable’ fighters
Reading Time:3 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
62
By 2030, China could operate about 1,000 units of the J-20 fifth-generation fighter jet, possibly challenging the US and its allies’ air power projection near the first island chain, according to a British think tank.
A report this month by the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) found a “dramatic increase” in the past five years in China’s capacity to contest Western air power, citing the production of “modern and highly capable” fourth- and fifth-generation fighters.
While the RUSI’s last estimate of Chinese combat air strength in 2020 suggested that the People’s Liberation Army was operating about 50 J-20 fighters at the time, its assessment in mid-2025 showed that the PLA Air Force was fielding about 300 J-20s.
Advertisement
According to RUSI, in the past five years the number of J-16 4.5-generation fighter jets has also increased sharply from about 90-100 units in 2020 to roughly 450 by the end of 2025.
“What these figures indicate, in practice, is that the proportion of fifth-generation and advanced fourth-generation fighters operated by the PLAAF has greatly increased since 2020 and will continue to do so,” it added.
The report said the production rates for the upgraded and technologically mature J-20A and the twin-seat J-20S variant reached about 120 aircraft per year.
Advertisement
Select Voice
Choose your listening speed
Get through articles 2x faster
1.25x
250 WPM
Slow
Average
Fast
1.25x