Can the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz? Many military analysts are sceptical

Chinese observers question whether air strikes, and even a limited ground presence, will be enough to remove the threat to shipping

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Tankers have come under attack in the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: AFP

Published: 9:00pm, 20 Mar 2026Updated: 9:13pm, 20 Mar 2026

US air strikes may have weakened Iran’s ability to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, but in the short term it is probably too risky to provide a military escort for oil tankers because of the threat from drones and mines, according to Chinese analysts.

Multiple media reports have said the United States was considering the use of ground troops to open the waterway, but many military observers have argued this would not be enough without further protracted fighting.

The strait is a vital shipping route that carries around 20 per cent of the world’s oil supplies, but traffic has come to a near standstill since the start of the US-Israeli assault on Iran on February 28.

Compared with the pre-war average of 100 to 35 ships a day, just 89 ships – including 16 oil tankers – passed through the strait between March 1 and 15, according to data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

Oil prices have surged above US$100 a barrel as a result of the blockade, and the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to zero for the first time last Saturday.

Iran is located on the northern shore of the strait, and around 20 ships in the region have been attacked since the conflict began.

Can the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz? Many military analysts are sceptical

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Chinese observers question whether air strikes, and even a limited ground presence, will be enough to remove the threat to shipping

Chinese observers question whether air strikes, and even a limited ground presence, will be enough to remove the threat to shipping